Storylines

Primetime Matchup in Late Window

The halfway point of the 2025 NFL regular season is one weekend away, but there is plenty to look forward to in the meantime. The most notable attraction of the round is Kansas City’s trip to Buffalo, for a repeat of last season’s AFC Championship game.

These two teams have faced off in the last five regular seasons, with the Bills winning the last four. Josh Allen scored a rushing touchdown in three of those four wins and has four rushing touchdowns over his last five games against the Chiefs, including the playoffs.

Two Young Quarterbacks Looking to Make Their Mark

Elsewhere, two inexperienced quarterbacks will be looking to get their careers moving in the right direction after getting off to rocky starts. J.J. McCarthy starts his second run as the Minnesota Vikings’ starting quarterback in a tough matchup against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field.

Jake Browning entered Week 9 with the lowest QB rating of the year among qualifying quarterbacks, with 70.5. Having started two games, McCarthy doesn’t qualify, but his rating is a lowly 67.2. He’ll need to be at his best to keep up with Detroit’s elite offense, but things have been ugly so far.

On the West Coast, second-round rookie Tyler Shough will make his first NFL start for the 1-7 New Orleans Saints. I didn’t rate Shough coming out of college, and I’ve not been encouraged by anything I’ve seen since.

The Los Angeles Rams have pressured quarterbacks at the eighth-highest rate (24.1%) this season, and are second in sacks (26). Having lost a quarterback battle to Spencer Rattler, despite his draft capital, it would be a surprise to see Shough excel in the NFL, but never say never.

Spreads

Looking at the spreads for this week’s games, there is one that stands out to me as off. The New England Patriots are favored by 5.5 points against the Atlanta Falcons, which doesn’t feel like enough.

The Patriots lead the AFC East with a 6-2 record, and haven’t lost since Week 3. They’ve won five straight games since then, by an average of 15 points. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris is on the hot seat after leading the playoff hopefuls to a 3-4 start.

A 34-10 loss to the Miami Dolphins, who turned back into pumpkins against the Ravens (just in time for Halloween), won’t be forgotten quickly. With the two teams seemingly in different worlds in terms of form and vibes, the Patriots should beat Atlanta by two or more scores this weekend.

Player Props

After focusing on running backs in my start/sit article this week, I’m doing the same with my player props. Three running backs, two overs, and one under.

Woody Marks, Over 14.5 Receiving Yards: 10/11

Woody Marks has hit this number in three of his last four games and should have plenty of opportunities to do so again this weekend. The Denver Broncos have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this year, fifth-fewest in the NFL

That rules out Nick Chubb, especially for fantasy, but the Texans can bypass that by getting Marks involved through the air. The rookie is an ascending talent and will be key to any success the Houston offense has this week.

Kimani Vidal, Over 77.5 Rushing Yards: 10/11

The Chargers were blown out by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7, and Kimani Vidal was limited to just nine carries as a result. In both of his other two games since Omarion Hampton’s injury, though, Vidal rushed for over 115 yards.

This week, he faces the Tennessee Titans, who have allowed 4.9 yards per carry so far this year, tied for sixth-most in the league. In a potential blowout win, Vidal should dominate on the ground once more.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards: 10/11

Like the Kimani Vidal prop, which was originally 72.5 yards, this one has moved in the few hours since I prepped this article, and may have moved more by the time you read this.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt hasn’t come close to this number in either of his last two games, and now faces one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Only two players have topped 42.5 rushing yards against Seattle all season (Christian McCaffrey, Jaylen Warren), and nobody has done it since Week 2.

Longshot Touchdown Scorers

For those who like to bet more speculatively on the weekends, here are some fun players to root for, who all have an outside chance of reeling in a touchdown.

Tre Harris, WR, Los Angeles Chargers: 11/1

Tre Harris pulled in his first NFL touchdown against the Vikings last week and appears to be a receiver on the rise. Harris has been targeted inside the red zone in two of his last three games and, like Vidal, faces a miserable Titans team on Sunday.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers: 9/1

Ja’Tavion Sanders keeps getting injuries just as he looks ready to take off in the NFL. Yet to score a touchdown this year, Sanders is still a long shot, but perhaps he shouldn’t be.

In just five games, the second-year tight end has been targeted seven times in the red zone. Starting quarterback Bryce Young is trending towards playing, after missing Week 8 with a high ankle sprain.

The Packers have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, making Carolina’s passing game their most likely route to success.

Connor Heyward, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: 14/1

The Pittsburgh Steelers face the Colts this weekend in a potential shootout. Aaron Rodgers has typically upped his game to keep up with opposing offenses this season, and the Colts are flying.

When it comes to potential touchdown scorers, you can pick any one of Pittsburgh’s tight ends. Connor Heyward is rightly listed well below his teammates, but already has one score this year.

Heyward wasn’t targeted at all against Green Bay last week, but was targeted inside the opposing 12-yard line in each of the previous two games.

Week 9 Parlay

This week, I’m combining several of the components of this article into one bet, including Josh Allen’s record against Kansas City. I’m also backing New England to pull away from the Falcons, as well as two of the above player props.

Patriots -9.5, Kimani Vidal over 77.5 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 42.5 rushing yards, and Josh Allen to score a touchdown: 18.09/1

That’s it for this week. For week-by-week fantasy football advice, you can check out the rest of my articles, including start/sits, streamers, buy low/sell high, and waiver adds on the home page.

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Thank you for reading, and have a great rest of your weekend!