All odds taken from Bet365 (UK) at time of writing.

Week 4 saw the first profit of the year, making us 1-1 for the season so far (there weren’t betting previews for weeks 1 and 3). $5 bets on all seven tips last week would have returned $115 on the weekend, an $80 profit, as Brian Thomas and the Texans receivers did the business in Houston.

In this article, I’ll lay out five bets that I’m making this weekend, including a four-player touchdown parlay. The touchdown parlay may or may not become a regular feature, but it felt like a fun addition as I endeavor to nail down a format to these articles.

My Week 5 NFL Bets

Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The L.A Rams are among the leakiest defenses in the league this year, both on the ground and through the air. Green Bay should be expecting to leave the West Coast with a W this week, but Matt Stafford and the Rams offense will no-doubt force them to put the work in.

This is probably my favorite bet this weekend, given that all players involved hit these numbers comfortably last week, whilst some of them have gone way over these numbers for several weeks running.

Jordan Love 300+ passing yards, Tutu Atwell and Jayden Reed 50+ receiving yards, Josh Jacobs and Kyren Williams 50+ rushing yards 9/1

Meanwhile, on the opposite coast, the Washington Commanders host the Cleveland Browns, a team who honestly look like they need a year off. Despite having, in my opinion, the worst defense in the league, Washington are 3-1 heading into this one and I expect them to be 4-1 on Monday.

I’ve backed Jayden Daniels to continue his impressive rushing touchdown rate (4 in 4 games), while his defense allows at least on score through the air. I’ve parlayed this with a couple of modest receiving lines for two players that have both reached these numbers with regularity through four games.

Jayden Daniels anytime TD, Deshaun Watson 1+ passing TD, Zach Ertz and Jerome Ford 3+ receptions and 25+ receiving yards 18/1

Sunday Night Football this week comes from Pittsburgh as the Steelers welcome the Dallas Cowboys. Mike Tomlin’s men have been awesome against the run this year, giving up just 3.7 yards/attempt on the ground. That immovable object should have no problems with the very stoppable force that is the Cowboys running game.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL for total rushing yards heading into this one, so I’ve backed their top two receiving weapons to get some work, whilst also backing two of the most impressive kickers in the league to have their say as well.

Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb 5+ receptions, Dallas and Pittsburgh 2+ field goals 25/4

Monday night provides a really interesting match-up at Arrowhead Stadium, as the 2024 surprise package New Orleans Saints look to hand Kansas City it’s first loss of the year.

With Rashee Rice off the field, Travis Kelce immediately picked up the usage that he’s been more accustomed to in recent years, with his nine targets almost doubling his total for the year. On the other side, Chris Olave now has 80+ receiving yards in three straight weeks as Klint Kubiak continues to work wonders in Louisiana.

This is the second bet this week that involves kickers. Both teams have eight field goals to their name this year, whilst both have also faced 2.5 attempts/game on average so far. I’ve gone for one more field goal to KC, as the Saints defense has allowed a touchdown on just 22.2% of red-zone trips this year, the best in the league.

Travis Kelce 5+ receptions, Kelce and Chris Olave 50+ receiving yards, New Orleans 2+ field goals, Kansas City 3+ field goals 18/1

Week 5 Touchdown Parlay

Photo Credit: Michael Conroy/AP

I’m adding in this touchdown parlay as a fun bet to throw in at the end. Whilst there will be reasons explained for each of the players involved, please note that touchdowns are far harder to predict than other stats.

As with all my other tips, I have backed this bet with my own money, but I’m far more hopeful, and far less expectant, when it comes to this bet prevailing.

I’ve picked these four players for a variety of reasons, the most obvious of which is Derrick Henry. King Henry currently has six touchdowns to his name through four weeks, including two in each of his last two games, that is all.

Hunter Henry, on the other hand, does not have six touchdowns, he has exactly zero. The reason for his inclusion lies in the fact that the Miami Dolphins, along with their obvious offensive issues, have allowed a touchdown on 80% of opposition red-zone trips.

First in line to profit on this, I would argue, is Hunter Henry. Henry leads the Patriots in targets this year and has ten receptions for a first-down, double the two players behind him on his team. In an offense that has struggled this season, in a game that they’ll see as a huge opportunity, I expect them to go to the big man when it matters.

I’ve added Amari Cooper to this parlay, despite his obvious struggles so far this season. Everything about the Browns just feels exhausted this year and whilst I expect them to lose again this week, I just can’t back the Washington secondary to keep someone of Cooper’s talent quiet.

Deshaun Watson is really struggling so far but it still finding the end-zone and he might not get a better opportunity all year.

Last on the list is Justin Fields. Fields returns home after finding the end-zone twice in Indianapolis last weekend, making it three for the year. I fancy him against the Cowboys who have struggled against the run at times this year and who had absolutely no answers when faced with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in week three.

Derrick Henry, Hunter Henry, Amari Cooper, Justin Fields all to score a touchdown 43.36/1

That’s all from me this week, I’m now back from a week away so I’ll be back with a round-up of this weekends games in mid-week. If you’re following these bets, or have some bets of you’re own, feel free to comment.

Have a great Sunday!