My five bets for NFL week 9

Week 9 of the NFL season is upon us which means another weekly betting preview.

I’ve put together five more bets, covering the early and late windows, Sunday night’s prime time game in Minnesota and Tampa Bay‘s visit to Kansas City on Monday.

In addition, I’ve suggested an addition to each bet for those that prefer bigger odds, whilst this weeks “big bet” focuses on Monday Night Football.

Dallas @ Atlanta

Rico Dowdle looks set to take over the Cowboys‘ running back room this weekend, after missing week 8 with an illness. The uninspiring duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook failed to impress last weekend in his absence, so Dowdle should be set for double-digit carries in Atlanta.

Every running back that has logged 10+ carries against the Falcons this year, has registered at least 69 rushing yards. Dowdle had the only 50+ yard rushing game of any Dallas back this season in week 5, followed by the blowout loss to Detroit and a bye week.

Whilst I don’t necessarily expect a huge game from Dowdle, I’m confidently backing him to put up at least respectable numbers.

If you’d like to boost your odds, Bijan Robinson has averaged 87 rushing yards/game over his last three games. Dallas’ struggles defending the run have also continued, they’ve allowed the 6th-most yards/attempt over their last three, tied with Houston and New Orleans.

Rico Dowdle 50+ rushing yards 31/20

Add: Bijan Robinson 75+ rushing yards 17/4

Denver @ Baltimore

Javonte Williams let me down last weekend, failing to make 75 yards on the ground against a poor Carolina defense.

But much like a moth with a light bulb, I’m going straight back to Javonte this week, though I’m staying well away from his rushing stats.

Whilst boasting the best run defense in the league, Baltimore has faced over six targets/game to running backs this year, the 10th-most in the league. This should suit Bo Nix, who had plenty of success checking the ball down to Bucky Irving last year for Oregon.

Teams are having to find alternative ways to get their running backs involved against the Ravens and Williams should see similar treatment on Sunday.

After averaging 5 targets/game over his last four appearances, I’m backing Williams to catch at least 3 against Baltimore, what he does with those receptions though, is anyone’s guess.

Baltimore are also the only team to allow over 200 total pass completions this year, so I’m pairing my Williams bet with 2+ receptions for Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Humphrey has 2+ receptions in 3 of his last 4 games and caught 4 of six targets last weekend against the Panthers.

Again, if you’d like to boost your odds, you can add in a Derrick Henry touchdown. Henry has a ridiculous 11 touchdowns in 8 games so far this year and is perhaps the safest part of this entire bet.

Javonte Williams 3+ receptions and Lil’Jordan Humphrey 2+ receptions 23/20

Add: Derrick Henry 1+ touchdown 2/1

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia

I’m attacking the Jacksonville passing defense again in week 9 and backing a big day for A.J Brown.

The Jaguars have allowed the 2nd-most passing yards on the season and are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed, conceding 17 scores through the air.

After a statement win against Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week, the Eagles will be looking to dominate a poor Jacksonville team, on home turf, which should mean some big yardage for number 11.

Brown has had 110+ yards receiving in two of his four games this year, whilst also collecting three receiving touchdowns. I’m betting on his total receiving yards and adding a touchdown on top.

A.J Brown 100+ receiving yards 33/20

Add: A.J Brown 1+ touchdown 11/4

Indianapolis @ Minnesota

Sunday Night Football this week offers what should be an explosive game, with plenty of offensive talent on show.

I’ve chosen to focus on the main attraction this time around, backing Justin Jefferson‘s receptions and receiving yard totals, whilst also recognizing a potential standout in the other direction.

From weeks 4-6, Josh Downs thrived with Joe Flacco under center for the Colts. In those three games, the 2nd-year receiver caught 24 passes for 217 yards (72.33 yards/game) and two touchdowns.

The Minnesota defense, whilst feared league-wide, is still giving up a lot of yards through the air, allowing the 3rd-most passing yards in the NFL.

I’m backing Downs to continue his impressive form this week, in what has been a great match-up for receivers. Jefferson, meanwhile, has at least 6 receptions in all of his last 5 games, and at least 81 receiving yards in all of his last 6. He also has 5 touchdowns in 7 games this season.

Justin Jefferson 6+ receptions and 75+ receiving yards, Josh Downs 50+ receiving yards 7/4

Add: Justin Jefferson 1+ touchdown 14/5

Tampa Bay @ Kansas City

For this week’s “big bet“, I’ve focused on one in-form player from both sides, with some Xavier Worthy sprinkled in.

Cade Otton hasn’t disappointed since inheriting the role of primary pass-catcher in Tampa Bay, after the team lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury in week 7.

Over his last two games, Otton has caught 17 of 20 passes for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns, making it 3 touchdowns in his last 3 games. The Chiefs have allowed the 2nd-most receptions to tight ends this year, despite playing only 7 games, so I’m backing Otton to continue his impressive form.

For the Chiefs, Kareem Hunt has rushed for 50+ yards in all 4 of his appearances since signing with the team, scoring 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. The Buccaneers have allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards/attempt this season, so again, I’m expecting that form to continue.

Finally, I’m adding in 3+ receptions for Xavier Worthy, something he has managed in four straight games, and 25+ receiving yards, which he has amassed in 3 of those 4.

Tampa Bay have allowed the 3rd-most yards after the catch this season, so if you’d like to gamble even bigger, back the speedster to carry those receptions even further downfield.

Cade Otton 6+ receptions, 50+ receiving yards and 1+ touchdown, Kareem Hunt 50+ rushing yards and 1+ touchdown, Xavier Worthy 3+ receptions and 25+ receiving yards 30/1

Add: Instead of 25, Xavier Worthy 50+ receiving yards 50/1