Three players to start and three to think twice about in fantasy this week.

And then there were four.

Week 16 is here and with games on Saturday, Sunday and Monday this weekend, there are plenty of twists and turns to look forward to in the days ahead.

To help you on your way, I’ve put together my weekly starts and sits article, to give you some context surrounding six players that I’m either high or low on this week.

Full disclosure, I found it difficult to narrow in on three “sits” this week. The difficult match-ups have fallen mostly to players that would be “starts” regardless. So two of my “sits” this week are players that, depending on your roster, could be considered for flex spots, but that I’m far less confident in.

Also, I wrote an article for LastWordOnSports.com this week, assessing the fantasy impact of seven key injuries this weekend, for those that are interested.

Week 16 Starts and Sits

Start – Jerome Ford (Browns)

Jerome Ford is the man to see Cleveland through to the end of the year, after another long-term injury to Nick Chubb in week 15.

Whilst Chubb’s injury is a heart breaker, the much-loved veteran had been disappointing in fantasy for the most part since his return. Ford’s impressive performances had led to him eating into Chubb’s workload of late, but now he takes over completely.

In week 15, Ford finished with 84 yards on just seven carries, adding a touchdown and a further 20 receiving yards. That stat-line was enough to finish 8th among running backs last week, and he has another great opportunity this weekend.

Cincinnati has allowed the league’s fourth-most rushing yards/attempt over their last five games, tied with New Orleans. And whilst the Bengals will be heavily favored for the win, Ford’s receiving ability should keep him active, regardless of the game script.

Ford should provide a low-end RB2 floor, with bags of upside.

Start – Bucky Irving (Buccaneers)

This one shouldn’t be too difficult.

Bucky Irving has been awesome this year and continued that form last week with 15 carries for 115 yards. He did that despite playing through hip and back injuries, which have left him limited in practice this week.

But Irving hasn’t been given an injury designation for the weekend, so should be good to go against Dallas.

That’s a Dallas team that have allowed 5.1 rushing yards/attempt over their last five games, the third-most in the NFL in that stretch. They’ve also allowed seven rushing touchdowns in that spell.

Everything points to an RB1 finish for Irving this week and he should be started everywhere.

Start – Adam Thielen (Panthers)

Adam Thielen was dynamite in weeks 13 and 14, no-doubt leading many fantasy managers to finally trust him last weekend. Unfortunately, the Dallas pass-rush dominated the Panthers offensive efforts, dampening the mood after what had been an encouraging run of form.

That Dallas pass-rush though, ranks first in the NFL this year in quarterback pressure rate. This week, Carolina faces an Arizona defense that has pressured quarterbacks at the fifth-lowest rate in the league this year.

I don’t think we should overreact to last week, Bryce Young has been performing much better recently and has lifted the Panthers offense as a whole.

A poor Carolina defense will leave the team relying on Young’s arm again on Sunday, and Thielen will be a big part of that again.

I’d expect low-end WR2 numbers at worst form Thielen this weekend, so you should feel confident starting him in your flex.

Sit – Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)

It would usually seem obvious to avoid a player that suffered a leg fracture earlier in that same season, but Isiah Pacheco remains a difficult player to overlook, especially in week 16.

But Pacheco is still yet to fully return to his old self after his injury and last week, split carries evenly with teammate Kareem Hunt. Pacheco carried 13 times for just 32 yards, whilst Hunt managed 45 yards on the same number of attempts.

There’s no guarantee that the pair won’t split time again this weekend, and that would likely kill Pacheco’s fantasy value for the second week straight.

This week, the Chiefs face the Texans on Saturday. Houston have allowed the fewest rushing yards/attempt in the NFL over their last five, and just two rushing touchdowns from week nine onward.

Pacheco isn’t necessarily a “sit” this week, but his low floor should make him a flex at best for contending teams.

Sit – Kendre Miller (Saints)

An explosive young running back, fantasy managers are understandably excited about the potential of Kendre Miller for fantasy.

Unfortunately, whilst he possesses the ability to break off a big play at any opportunity, those opportunities may be in short supply on Monday night.

The Saints face a Green Bay defense allowing the 8th-fewest rushing yards/attempt over their last five games. In a game that the Packers will be expected to dominate, game script might be against Miller in this one as well.

Whilst Miller has receiving ability, the team signed Clyde Edwards-Helaire to their practice squad this week, and will likely activate him if/when Alvin Kamara is officially ruled out.

Edwards-Helaire specializes in the receiving game, whilst Jamaal Williams could end up taking goal-line work, given his history in that area.

Add in, that the Saints will be relying on Spencer Rattler to keep drives alive, and there are so many factors that could nuke Miller’s opportunities this weekend.

All in all, if you’re in need of something big after Saturday’s games or the Sunday early window, Miller has the explosiveness to do something special. Miller’s floor though, should prompt you to look elsewhere if you need something more concrete.

Sit – Jake Ferguson (Cowboys)

Like Pacheco, Ferguson is a big-name player that has struggled to live up to expectations of late.

After Luke Schoonmaker stepped up in his absence in weeks 12 and 13, it would have been fair to expect Ferguson to kick on down the stretch. Instead, Ferguson is still in search of his first touchdown this season, and has recorded just one top-20 tight-end finish since week five.

That TE8 finish in week nine was also his only game with over 32 receiving yards in that span. There’s actually nothing wrong with his match-up against Tampa Bay this week, but Ferguson has been so disappointing of late.

In conclusion, whilst the match-up with Tampa Bay is actually a positive, Ferguson has given you no reason to trust him in fantasy lately.

Hail-Mary Waiver Add of the Week – Ty Johnson (Bills)

It should be noted, that whilst I recommended caution with both Pacheco and Miller due to their low floors, both have higher floors than Ty Johnson.

However, over his last two games, Johnson has caught seven of eight targets for 169 yards and a touchdown. Whilst listed as a running back, Johnson has been used almost exclusively in the passing game.

The trouble with Johnson is that those last two games have come out of nowhere, and there’s no guarantee that he won’t turn back into a pumpkin this week.

As is the case with Miller though, if you get behind early this weekend and have to play for upside, Johnson carries a massive ceiling.

On top of his potential receiving usage, Johnson could see more rushing work later in the game, if the Bills dominate as expected.

Johnson is far from a sure thing and should be seen as a “in case of emergency, break glass” option for those with a roster full of floor plays.

That’s my starts and sits done for week 16, massive thanks to those that read this far. I hope you’ve got something actionable out of this article, and if you have, feel free to subscribe for email notifications.

Best of luck in those semis!

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.