The six NFL bets I’m making this weekend.

In a huge weekend for fantasy football, the NFL has a spread schedule, with three games already in the books entering Sunday.

Fortunately, there is still plenty of opportunity to bet some friendly-looking props over the three Sunday windows, which is where I’ve focused my attention.

This week, I’ve put together two bets each for the early and late windows, a Sunday Night Football bet and this week’s “Big Bet”, featuring the AFC North match-up in Cincinnati.

As always, I’ve added a same-game parlay option to the five main bets, for those that prefer to play with bigger odds.

Also, if you’re competing in your fantasy football semi-finals this weekend, check out my starts and sits article, which has already hit on Isiah Pacheco‘s tough day yesterday.

NFL Bets for Week 16

Cardinals @ Panthers

Early Window

Last week’s disappointing result against the Cowboys, with a performance to match, may have impacted Adam Thielen‘s receiving props this week.

But since returning from injury in week 12, Thielen has given us plenty of reason to believe he’ll make good on those props this weekend.

In his first game back, Thielen put up 57 yards on three catches, followed by 99, 102 and 51 yards on eight, nine and five receptions respectively.

His five receptions for 51 yards last week, came against a Dallas defense that leads the NFL in quarterback pressure percentage this year, and smothered Bryce Young throughout the game.

This week, the Panthers face a Cardinals defense that rank fifth-worst in quarterback pressure percentage, which should allow Young to get back to form.

Thielen only needs one more reception, and seven more yards than last week to hit this week’s props. When you factor in the standard of defense he faces, along with an injury to teammate Xavier Legette, I’d be shocked if he didn’t hit those numbers this weekend.

Adam Thielen over 57.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions 19/10

Lions @ Bears

Early Window

With a potentially season-ending injury to David Montgomery last week, Jahmyr Gibbs is the main man in the Detroit backfield this weekend.

Tasked with stopping one of the leagues most explosive backs this Sunday, is the Chicago Bears defense. Entering the week, the Bears had given up the league’s fourth-most passing yards over their last five games.

On the ground, things haven’t been much better. At the start of the week, Chicago were tied for the ninth-most rushing yards/attempt allowed over that same five-game stretch.

In his last two games, Gibbs has recorded receiving lines of 6/6 for 30 yards and a touchdown, and 5/7 for 83 yards and a touchdown. Taking that into consideration, his receiving lines this week look very friendly.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 29.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions 7/5

49ers @ Dolphins

Late Window

When first taking a look at this game, I wasn’t expecting to come away with a Miami receiving over. The 49ers have allowed the league’s fewest total passing yards over their last five games.

But with Jaylen Waddle doubtful for Sunday, I’m intrigued by Malik Washington‘s low receiving yards prop.

The rookie receiver got an inflated opportunity last week when Waddle left the game early, and caught five of six targets for 52 yards in the loss to Houston.

Despite a tricky match-up, we should expect Washington to continue to see more targets with Waddle out, with Jonnu Smith already commanding double-digit targets.

Tyreek Hill is also struggling with a wrist injury, and was downgraded to questionable on Friday. Normally you would expect Hill to play through a “questionable” tag, but the late downgrade is something to keep an eye on.

Washington could well end up being the Dolphins’ WR1 this week. If Hill does go though, he has hit this week’s receiving prop only four times this year.

Malik Washington over 28.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Tyreek Hill under 73.5 receiving yards 5/2

Vikings @ Seahawks

Late Window

Rounding out the late-window bets is Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s receiving prop.

I offered this bet last week as a parlay option for the Josh Jacobs touchdown, and it came in at 9/4. JSN has 69+ receiving yards in seven-straight games, making this week’s prop a bit of a head-scratcher.

Aiding Smith-Njigba’s cause this weekend, is that he faces a Minnesota defense that have allowed the third-most passing yards in the league over their last five.

If you’d like to parlay this bet, Jordan Addison has been seeing plenty of usage in recent weeks. JSN’s fellow second-year receiver has caught seven or more passes in three of his last four games, his prop this week is 4.5 receptions.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 61.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Jordan Addison over 4.5 receptions 13/5

Buccaneers @ Cowboys

Sunday Night Football

The Buccaneers head to Dallas this weekend for Sunday’s curtain closer…

get it?… because the curtain…

…

Anyway, entering week 16, Dallas had allowed the third-most rushing yards/attempt in the NFL over their last five games. The Cowboys have turned in some more encouraging performances of late, but their run defense remains a problem.

Enter, Bucky Irving.

Not including week 14, when he left early on with an injury, Irving has amassed 73, 88, 152 and 117 rushing yards over his last four games.

His low rushing yards prop this week would seem to suggest that there is still some concern surrounding his recent injuries, but Irving was taken off the injury report days ago.

His running-back partner, Rachaad White, should also see plenty of work. White has actually performed better since Bucky Irving took over the lead role, and has accumulated nine touchdowns over his last eight games.

With Cade Otton sidelined this Sunday, White could be in line for even more usage in the passing game, and see more opportunities around the end-zone.

Bucky Irving over 62.5 rushing yards 10/11

Add: Rachaad White 1+ touchdown 13/5

Browns @ Bengals

Big Bet of the week – Early Window

This week’s “Big Bet” comes courtesy of the AFC North.

The Bengals, hoping to keep the faintest of playoff hopes alive, welcome the Browns, who gave up hope rather a long time ago.

The spread for this game, as I write this, is nine points, which is higher than yesterday, but still feels generous to the Browns. Cleveland has a points differential of -52 over their last five games.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start this one, after the team gave up on Jameis Winston last week. It’s a shame that we might not get to see Winston again this year, but it makes sense for Cleveland to give the younger prospect an opportunity.

Last week though, DTR managed to record an interception, despite throwing just nine times. In week seven, in his biggest opportunity so far this year, he threw 24 times and managed two interceptions, against Cincinnati.

As well as a Bengals blowout, I’m backing Ja’Marr Chase to continue his incredible season as he hunts a triple crown. Chase leads the league with 15 receiving touchdowns in 14 games.

Finally, I’ve added in Chase Brown‘s receiving prop, a number that he’s hit in five of his last six.

Bengals -13.5, Thompson-Robinson 2+ interceptions, Chase Brown over 29.5 receiving yards, Ja’Marr Chase 1+ touchdown 16/1

That’s me done for the week. Thank you to anyone that’s read this far, I really appreciate your time.

If you have any of your own bets for this week, feel free to share them. Also, if you have thoughts on the new graphics that I’ve used for these last two articles, please do let me know.

Best of luck if you’re betting this weekend, please do so responsibly.

Odds taken from Bet365 (UK).

All odds accurate at time of writing.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.