Fantasy football insights for Saturdays games, plus the bets I’m making today

It’s week 17 and as we enter Saturday, we’re already three games into the NFL week.

Whilst more football sounds great, with Christmas and the NFL adding two extra game days, my writing schedule has been obliterated this week.

That being said, I hope you all had an awesome Christmas and are fortunate enough to have some time off over the festive period.

I’ve settled upon separating my start/sit and betting articles into two days, so that I can cover the Saturday games.

Speaking of which…

Here are my starts, sits and player bets for each of today’s NFL match-ups.

Saturdays Starts, Sits and Player Bets

Chargers @ Patriots

The Chargers and Patriots get us underway today in New England, with story lines surrounding both backfields.

J.K Dobbins looks set to return to the Chargers lineup this week, just in time to replace the injured Gus Edwards as the team looks to secure a playoff place.

For New England, there is a possibility that Antonio Gibson usurps Rhamondre Stevenson as the lead back, after seeing more snaps last week. Stevenson out-carried his teammate 12-10, but that marked a significant increase for Gibson.

Stevenson also made costly errors in what was a close game against Buffalo, notably fumbling a lateral, which resulted in a Bills touchdown.

For that reason, I’m recommending sitting Stevenson, who presents as a flex option this week for those that are less concerned about the timeshare.

On the other side of the ball, I’d feel confident starting J.K Dobbins this weekend. Dobbins’ impact had faded a little before his injury, but his involvement should be solid in a game that the Chargers need to win.

In terms of bets, I’m backing Antonio Gibson to continue his work in the receiving game. Gibson has two catches in two-straight games. In their last three games, the Chargers have allowed four running backs go over 10.5 receiving yards on two or fewer catches.

Elsewhere, Kayshon Boutte has had six or more targets in six of his last eight games, catching five of seven last week. The Chargers have allowed a 69.7% completion rate over their last five (tied-6th highest in the NFL).

Antonio Gibson over 10.5 receiving yards 10/11

Kayshon Boutte 4+ receptions 17/10

Broncos @ Bengals

The other AFC West team looking to guarantee a playoff place this weekend is the Broncos, who face one of the teams trying to take their place.

If the Bengals win today, Denver will head into week 18 needing to beat the Chiefs, whilst the Bengals will have a chance to steal their place with a win over Pittsburgh.

Both of these teams enter the weekend inside the bottom six in terms of total passing yards allowed over their last five. For Denver, this is likely a result of their impressive run defense, as they’ve faced the most pass attempts in that time.

For Cincinnati, it’s a result of their high-powered offense pushing the game script that way. The Bengals actually possess the fourth-worst run defense over the last five games, allowing 5.2 yards/attempt in that time.

Looking to take advantage of that, will be healthy-again Jaleel McLaughlin. I’d just started to rave about McLaughlin’s fantasy prospects before his recent quad injury, after he appeared to have taken over the Broncos backfield.

The second-year back recorded back-to-back full practices to finish the week, so nothing should stop him picking up where he left off against a struggling Bengals run defense.

As well as recommending him for a start, I’ve doubled down on McLaughlin with my bets today.

Jaleel McLaughlin over 1.5 receptions 20/23

Jaleel McLaughlin over 27.5 rushing yards 5/6

Cardinals @ Rams

Rounding out the Saturday schedule is the NFC West match-up between the Cardinals and the Rams.

The NFC West title will be decided next week, when the Rams play the Seahawks.

But the Rams could move to four division wins if they beat Arizona, which is one more than Washington, who enter week 17 one win ahead of both LA and Seattle. Those division wins could prove massive in the race for the final NFC wildcard spot, if it should come to that.

There’s been a lot of fantasy hype around Michael Carter this week, as James Conner has been questionable with a knee injury he picked up last weekend. Conner looks as though he’ll play though, so if you picked up Carter and put him in your lineup, remember to take him out if Conner’s involvement is confirmed.

My along with Carter, I wouldn’t be wanting to trust Marvin Harrison with a fantasy championship on the line.

When he hasn’t scored a touchdown, Harrison has failed to finish inside the top 41 receivers in any week this season. The Rams have allowed the seventh-lowest completion percentage (60.9%) over their last five, along with only six passing touchdowns.

Kyler Murray has struggled of late and if he does get a chance in the red-zone, he has promised fans he’ll get Trey McBride a touchdown, and time is running out.

I’m betting on James Conner this week, so I’m prepared to look stupid if he does end up being ruled out. All the noises are that he’ll play though, and with nothing on the line but pride for Arizona, I don’t think they’d make that decision if he wasn’t ready.

Conner has 68, 90, 110 and 117 rushing yards in his last four games, so make the most of the injury doubt and jump on his rushing prop. You can probably ladder that bet all the way to 110 yards, I’ve chosen to parlay him with Kyren Williams.

Both Conner and Williams are coming off back-to-back games with over 100 rushing yards and are both goal-line machines.

James Conner over 57.5 rushing yards 10/11

James Conner 1+ touchdown 20/21

James Conner over 57.5 rushing yards and 1+ touchdown 2/1

James Conner and Kyren Williams 100+ rushing yards and 1+ touchdown each 30/1

That’s me done for today, I’ll bring out a similar article for tomorrow’s games tomorrow. For now, I hope this helps navigate today’s games, best of luck to anyone competing for a championship this weekend!

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.

Odds taken from Bet365 (UK).

All odds accurate at the time of writing.