The bets I’m making this NFL Sunday.

And just like that, we’ve reached the final day of the NFL regular season.

The Saturday games, coupled with the amount of players being rested, has made it a little harder to confidently identify betting opportunities this weekend. That being said, I’m happy with today’s picks.

Back-to-back game-days does however, allow me to quickly put Jaylen Warren‘s 21 total yards to the back of my mind. Apologies to anyone that followed me into that slap in the face yesterday.

Today, I’ve focused on four games that all have some playoff implications, starting with four-straight rookie features.

I’ve covered the early and late windows, as well as Sunday Night Football, which is where I’ve gone for this week’s “Big Bet“.

NFL Week 18 Player Bets

Saints @ Buccaneers

Early Window

Tampa Bay heads into this game with a chance to claim the #3 seed in the NFC if the Rams lose to Seattle in the late window. If they come unstuck against the 5-11 Saints though, they risk missing out on the playoffs altogether.

It’s those very Saints that I’m focusing on first though, as their rookie quarterback has flashed with his feet in recent weeks.

This season, when playing over 90% of snaps, Spencer Rattler has managed 27, 34, 28 and 44 rushing yards. The lack of quality receivers at his disposal means he’ll likely have to do it again this Sunday.

Rattler’s rushing yards prop is just 15.5 yards, so I’m confidently backing that. If you want to, you can push that to 20+ yards for some better returns.

Spencer Rattler over 15.5 rushing yards 10/11

Spencer Rattler 20+ rushing yards 7/5

Focusing on the Buccaneers, one player’s props stand out yet again this weekend.

Jalen McMillan continues to put in solid performances for Tampa Bay, catching 4+ passes for 51+ yards and 1+ touchdown in four-straight games. McMillan now has six touchdowns in his last four, as he continues to benefit from playing opposite Mike Evans.

Once again though, the rookie’s receiving props continue to downplay his importance to this team. I’m backing him all the way in a game that the Buccaneers have to win.

Jalen McMillan over 3.5 receptions 1/1

Jalen McMillan over 41.4 receiving yards 10/11

Jalen McMillan 1+ touchdown 13/10

Parlay all three of the above 16/5

Bears @ Packers

Early Window

Provided the Buccaneers get the job done against the Saints, there will be no easy games in the NFC playoffs. That being said, the Packers would likely prefer to avoid a trip to Philadelphia next week, if at all possible.

To do that, they’ll have to beat the Bears at home and hope that the Cowboys can get a positive result against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders.

Once again though, I’m turning my attention to the opposing quarterback and his rushing work.

Caleb Williams has flashed the creativity and magic that made him the number one pick in 2024, but it’s been a really difficult rookie season overall for Chicago’s new hope.

On the ground though, Williams has topped this week’s rushing prop in six of his last seven games. I’m backing him to continue that solid form, and coupling it with a Packers player who’s been even more consistent.

Since the Packers’ bye in week 10, Josh Jacobs has found the end-zone every single week, racking up 11 scores in just seven games. Chicago have given up six rushing touchdowns in their last five games and I don’t expect things to improve at Lambeau Field.

Caleb Williams over 26.5 rushing yards 10/11

Add: Josh Jacobs 1+ touchdown 23/10

Chargers @ Raiders

Late Window

The only late-window game on this list, is also the only AFC game on this list.

After the Steelers lost to Cincinnati last night, the Chargers have the opportunity to avoid the Ravens next weekend, if they can overcome the Raiders later today.

Las Vegas, despite being out of the playoff race for some time, have chosen culture over draft position, continuing to play hard until the very end.

With Josh Palmer ruled out for this one, Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly will provide the most reliable targets for Justin Herbert. McConkey has gone above and beyond what the team would have expected of him in his rookie year, and he should be heavily involved again today.

The rookie has tallied over 80 receiving yards in five of his last six games, topping 90 in three of those. I’m backing him to continue that form, whilst also betting on a far less obvious player from the opposing team.

Alexander Mattison has failed to fill the shoes left by Josh Jacobs this year, but should get and increased opportunity this week after Ameer Abdullah was ruled out.

Abdullah had excelled in the passing game whilst splitting work fairly evenly with Mattison. Even with the shared workload, Mattison has averaged 2.5 receptions/game over the last four weeks.

I’m not suggesting that he’ll do anything once he has the ball in his hands, but plus-money for just three receptions, with no Abdullah, is too good to pass on.

Ladd McConkey over 71.5 receiving yards 10/11

Alexander Mattison over 2.5 receptions 13/10

Parlay both of the above 13/4

Vikings @ Lions

Sunday Night Football

Thank god for this game.

On a weekend full of second-string lineups, teams going all-out to lose and hours of meaningless football being played, Sunday Night Football feels extra special this week.

The Vikings face the Lions for the NFC North title, the #1 seed in the NFL and automatic qualification to the divisional round.

And after identifying this week’s “Big Bet” almost immediately, I then spent way too long struggling to find a standard bet for this match-up. In a game that could easily explode in every offensive direction, inflated props left me feeling boxed out.

Eventually though, I settled on Aaron Jones‘ receiving yards prop, and I’m feeling good about it.

Jones has 26+ receiving yards in back-to-back games, whilst four different running backs have tallied 28+ receiving yards against the Lions, in just the last three weeks. Three of those running backs passed the 30 yards mark, with one topping 100.

Aaron Jones over 20.5 receiving yards 10/11

Aaron Jones 30+ receiving yards 19/10

Week 18 Big Bet

Sticking with the Vikings, this bet is a bit of a swing.

Last week, Jalen Nailor caught all five of his targets for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Packers, in a game that was far more one-sided than the final score would suggest.

Whilst that stat-line is a bit of an outlier when viewed alongside other recent games, it’s not out of the question that the Vikings involve him again this week.

Nailor has been a solid, reliable receiver for Minnesota when called upon, and he has the potential to put up big numbers on any given weekend.

Admittedly, this bet has just as much, if not more, potential to fall flat on it’s face. The “Big Bet” though, isn’t meant to be a safe play, and I’m happy to back a player that put up big numbers just last week, in a potential shootout.

Jalen Nailor 3+ receptions 7/2

Add: Jalen Nailor 50+ receiving yards 10/1

Add: Jalen Nailor 1+ touchdown 25/1

I hope this article has inspired one or two bets of your own this NFL Sunday, if so, let me know in the comments.

With the regular season over, I’ll continue to write throughout the playoffs and the off-season. If you’re looking for some new NFL, fantasy football or betting content, you can subscribe to this blog for email notifications for all new articles, as they’re published.

That’s me done for the week, enjoy the rest of your weekends and remember to gamble responsibly.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.

Odds taken from Bet365 (UK).

All odds accurate at the time of writing.