The bets I’m making this Saturday.

This Saturday will see the first teams progress to both the NFC and AFC Championship games next weekend. The favorites all remain, with the potential for the Eagles, Lions and Chiefs to all make the final four.

Only one game this weekend guarantees the loss of a top-five contender, when the Ravens travel to Buffalo for the Sunday night game.

Sticking to today’s games though, here are my bets for the games in Kansas City and Detroit.

My Bets for Saturday’s Divisional Round Games

Texans @ Chiefs

4:30pm ET Spread: Chiefs -9

The Chiefs head into this one as nine-point favorites to progress but had struggled against the run before their bye last week.

Before their week 18 loss to Denver, when they fielded mainly back-ups, the Chiefs had allowed 5.4 yards/carry from weeks 13-17.

Joe Mixon was quiet through the final four weeks of the regular season, but snapped back into life last weekend as the Texans overcame the Chargers on Wildcard Weekend. Mixon carried 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown and I’m backing him again today.

Another player I’m backing in the ground game in this one, is slightly less obvious.

Xavier Worthy has carried the ball eight times in his last three games as the Chiefs find new ways to use their speed threat. Worthy has made good on those carries, and topped this weekend’s rushing yards prop in four-straight starts. Worthy also has a touchdown in three straight.

Joe Mixon over 54.5 rushing yards 10/11

Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards 39/20

Xavier Worthy over 4.5 rushing yards 10/11

Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown 2/1

Commanders @ Lions

8pm ET Spread: Lions -9

Later on, the Commanders face off with perhaps the most intimidating team in the NFL. The Lions are many people’s favorites to win it all in February after demolishing almost every team in their path on their way to the No.1 seed in the NFC.

The Commanders meanwhile are the only wildcard team remaining, after a game-winning, “doinked” field goal saw them overcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend.

I’ve backed Washington with the points in this one, with the spread at 9.5. Detroit have the potential to obliterate this line of course, but Washington haven’t lost by more than a score since week one.

In fact, all of my player bets in this game are also on the Commanders. I definitely feel a bit odd to not be backing any Lions players, but the passes could go anywhere and David Montgomery’s return clouds things a bit for the Detroit backfield.

In the end, the odds take you where they take you. And after facing the most in-form run defense in the league last week, the Washington rushing props are temptingly low.

The Lions, unlike Tampa Bay, allowed the fifth-most rushing yards/attempt in the NFL over the last five games of the regular season. On top of that, they allowed nine rushing touchdowns over those games, which was the most in the NFL.

Austin Ekeler got eight carries to Brian Robinson’s ten last weekend, and looked the sharper of the two. His 27 rushing yards last weekend is something I expect him to replicate later today. Brian Robinson should still get any goal line carries though, so I’ve backed him for a touchdown.

My final bet of the day is on Jayden Daniels. It could be your last chance to bet on the exciting rookie this season, so fortunately there is a screaming value to be had.

Daniels is even-money to throw 2+ touchdowns today, a feat he has managed in six-straight games, not including his limited action in week 18.

Washington +9 10/11

Austin Ekeler over 23.5 rushing yards 10/11

Brian Robinson anytime touchdown 8/5

Jayden Daniels over 1.5 touchdowns 1/1

That’s me done for the day.

I’ll be back with another article tomorrow for the final two games of the round. If you’re betting this weekend, please do so responsibly. Otherwise, enjoy Saturday’s games and the rest of your Saturday night.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.

Odds taken from Bet365 (UK).

All odds accurate at the time of writing.