NFL week 9 brings with it the return of bye weeks, with the Steelers and 49ers taking a break this weekend.

Whilst the plethora of 49ers injuries makes their bye week far less devastating than it has been to in previous seasons, there remains plenty of start/sit dilemma’s for fantasy managers to sort out ahead of Sunday.

To help with that, here are three players I’d feel very comfortable starting in fantasy this week, followed by three players I’d recommend avoiding.

As always, start/sit decisions will depend on your roster, but I’ll provide some reasoning for each player to help you make those final lineup decisions.

Starts

Caleb Williams (Chicago)

Williams‘ outing against Washington last weekend could hardly have gone worse. Propped up by a solid defensive display in the second half, Caleb rallied late to help his team to a surprise lead, but walked away with a deserved loss thanks to Jayden Daniels‘ hail-Mary heroics.

Williams finished the game having completed only 10 of his 24 pass attempts for 131 yards, though added a respectable 47 yards on the ground.

As I wrote in my buy-low section this week, Caleb’s weekly rankings have correlated very strongly with the strength of opposing defenses.

When ordered in terms of passing yards allowed per game, from best to worst, Williams has faced Tennessee, Houston, Washington, LA Rams, Indianapolis, Carolina and Jacksonville this season.

In that same order, Williams finished those weeks as the QB31, QB29, QB28, QB21, QB14, QB6 and QB1 in fantasy.

It’s not an exact science of course, there are multiple variables, but his weekly fantasy totals follow that same order. It’s certainly a solid enough correlation to be taken into consideration, and if it plays out, we should see Williams finish somewhere between QB2 and QB5 this weekend against Arizona.

It’d be unreasonable to expect the correlation to continue perfectly, but in the wild and unpredictable world of fantasy football, I’m grabbing any solid trend with both hands while it’s there.

Courtland Sutton (Denver)

Many people would have been grossed out by Sutton‘s zero targets against the Saints in week 7, but the veteran receiver has absolutely dominated the Broncos this year in targets all over the field.

This week, Sutton is up against the number 32-ranked passing defense in the league, in passing yards allowed per game. In addition, Ravens starting corner Marlon Humphrey has been limited in practice this week with a knee injury, potentially adding further concern for the Baltimore defense.

Sutton is coming off his first 100-yard receiving game of the season and whilst that could be seen as a bad omen, given his inconsistent fantasy performances this season, the only way past Baltimore is through the air.

The key factor on Sunday, I believe, will be how Bo Nix plays away from home against an intimidating Ravens team. Nix has 259 rushing yards so far this season, but may find his movement restricted in this one.

Overall though, I think Nix has done enough to earn some trust since his eyebrow-raising draft selection earlier in the year. If he can be even moderately accurate against Baltimore, Sutton should be in for a solid game again.

Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas)

Jakobi Meyers is coming off his second-best fantasy finish of the year in week 8, logging a low-end WR2 finish in half-ppr leagues, against a solid Kansas City defense.

This weekend, he faces the Bengals, who have allowed three different receivers (Cedric Tillman, Devonte Smith, A.J Brown) to go for 80+ yards receiving in their last two games, and to score two touchdowns between them in the process.

Meyers is, without question, the Raiders‘ number one wide receiver since Davante Adams left for New York. Having missed weeks 6 and 7 with an ankle injury, the 27 year old will look to continue making up for lost time in Cincinnati on Sunday.

Sits

J.K Dobbins (LA Chargers)

Dobbins burst into the season with two top-5 running back finishes in the opening two weeks of the season. Since then though, the Chargers runner has been very inconsistent.

Though adding a third RB1 finish in week 6 at Denver and an RB2 finish against New Orleans this past Sunday, Dobbins has struggled against top run defenses this year.

Both Pittsburgh and Kansas City restricted Dobbins to less than 50 rushing yards in weeks 3 and 4, and this week, he faces a Cleveland run defense that are no pushovers either.

The Browns have allowed the league’s 2nd-fewest rushing yards/attempt over their last 3 games, despite facing Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in that time.

Barkley had his lowest rushing total of the season against the Browns, Henry his 2nd-lowest. When you factor in that Dobbins has averaged only 3.4 yards/carry since their week 5 bye, it’s hard to feel confident in him this week.

Of running backs with 24+ carries over their last 3 games, Dobbins’ 3.4 yards/carry ranks 37th out of 44 and he hasn’t gone over 4 yards/carry since week 2.

Javonte Williams (Denver)

It’s ridiculous how often the Ravens come up in these articles, when their players are never featured. But when you have the best run defense in the league and the leakiest pass defense, you’re always going to get mentioned in start/sit pieces.

Which leads me to my weekly “don’t start running running backs that are facing the Ravens” segment.

I’ve been over this at nauseam this season, if you’re not avoiding the Ravens defense with your running back selections by now, you frankly deserve everything you get, or rather, don’t get.

Only 4 running backs have managed double-digit fantasy points against Baltimore this season and all 4 have relied on either touchdowns of the receiving game to get there.

Javonte Williams has only two touchdowns all year, both against the Saints in week 7, who are the worst run defense in the league over the last three games, in rushing yards allowed/game.

Having mustered an abysmal 2.59 yards/carry against a poor Carolina defense last week, I’m expecting exactly nothing from Williams in week 9. Of course it depends on your other options, but you should feel confident looking elsewhere this week.

If you’re desperate for a flex, I’d consider picking up Taysom Hill for this week if you have room, both have the same low floor, but I’d argue that Hill’s ceiling is much higher against the Panthers.

Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville)

The outlook isn’t great for Tank Bigsby this weekend, but his monster game in London against the Patriots, followed by another solid game against Green Bay in week 8, will have some fantasy managers tempted.

Bigsby amassed over 200 total yards over those last two games, adding two rushing touchdowns in London. The Eagles defense he faces this weekend, however, is a different beast.

Philadelphia have not allowed 50+ rushing yards to a running back since week 3, and Bigsby has almost no role in the Jaguars passing attack. So whilst it’s possible that he runs in a short touchdown, it’s also very possible that he does almost nothing at all.

The Eagles are huge favorites for Sunday and could very easily rack up a big lead early on, as the Bears did against Jacksonville in week 6. That day, Bigsby was limited to just 7 carries as the Jags chased the game, a fate that is more probable than not this weekend.

It’s difficult to count out running backs (he says, after listing only running backs in this “sit” segment). One missed tackle or a goal-line touchdown can turn a poor performance into a usable week, but you don’t want to be crossing your fingers on Sundays.

That’s all from me. As always, I hope this article proved somewhat useful. I’ll be back with my week 9 betting preview tomorrow, for those wanting inspiration for their own NFL bets this weekend.

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