1QB, half-ppr ADP’s taken from Sleeper. Best ball ADP’s taken from multiple sources.

The 2024 NFL season finally kicks off this Thursday night with a mouth-watering AFC clash between a new-look Baltimore Ravens and Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs, who are aiming to be the first ever team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

For many of you, like myself, this years fantasy football drafts are a spec in the rearview mirror but for anyone with a last-minute draft, or anyone looking to cram one or two more in before it all begins, here are my final pointers to keep in mind when planning your draft.

The F**k list is for Best Ball, the players that will give you some of the best weekends of your year, but aren’t stable enough for a full-time commitment.

The Marry list is for Re-draft, these are the players that you can always call upon and will rarely let you down. Nobody’s perfect, but you can settle down with these guys for the season.

The Kill list, these are the players that I’m avoiding this year. These guys might seem great, but there’s just something off about them. Maybe a crazy ex, maybe a lack of social media, or maybe they show up one day with completely bleached hair, coupled with a suspicious wrist injury.

All of these takes are cost-related, if you disagree with any or would like to suggest your own, feel free to comment.

F**k – Taysom Hill (New Orleans)

ADP 158 TE 17 Bye Week 12

Photo Credit: John David Mercer/USA Today Sports

Given that Hill has actually out-performed this ADP in every season since 2019, he very nearly made it onto the Marry list. Included in his TE10 finish last season were seven TE1 and Three TE2 weeks and two TE3 weeks, it’s about time the Saints’ offensive box of tricks was given the respect he deserves.

The knock, though, is that the other four weeks of Hill’s season ranked 49th, 39th, 59th and 60th at the position. Hill is like an action hero that one week will enter a burning school building and single-handedly save the lives of a dozen children, but the next week, enter a perfectly in-tact school building and set it on fire.

The bottom line though is that as the 17th tight end off the board, he is an absolute must as your second tight end in best ball and a player that I am completely comfortable reaching a round, or even two, to have on my team.

Marry – Amari Cooper (Cleveland)

ADP 55 WR 27 Bye Week 10

Photo Credit: Andrew Nelles/USA Today Network

This one almost writes itself, but it doesn’t, so here I go. In his entire career, Amari Cooper has finished as the WR27 or lower just twice (27 in ’21, 32 in ’17). Outside of those two seasons he has accumulated four WR2 finishes and three WR1 finishes.

Last year, in fifteen games, Cooper finished the year as the WR18 despite the Browns starting four different quarterbacks over the course of the season. Cleveland’s number one receiver also finished the 2023 season with his joint lowest (’20,’16) touchdown total, with just five. Touchdowns are a tricky stat to predict, but history would suggest that we should expect another three or four in 2024.

Kill – Joe Burrow (Cincinnati)

ADP 62 QB7 Bye Week 12

Photo Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

It is well documented that Cincinnati’s golden boy, Joe Burrow, has never had a full pre-season since joining the league in 2020. But what is also very noticeable, and far more concerning, is that Burrow has also had injuries de-rail two of his four seasons in the league, the latest being two separate injuries in 2023.

Cincinnati’s problems don’t end there, after franchise-tagging wantaway receiver Tee Higgins this off-season, the Bengals now head into week one with star receiver Ja’marr Chase not practicing due to contract concerns of his own. There’s little doubt that Chase’s issue will be sorted soon enough by the organization, but it’s impossible to ignore the negative vibes heading into the season.

Maybe Burrow is perfectly healthy and back to his elite best in 2024, maybe Chase suits up for week one and the team is challenging for the ultimate prize once more. But with Burrow going ahead of the likes of Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, along with more mobile quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels, it’s not a risk I’m taking this year.

F**k – Jayden Reed (Green Bay)

ADP 60 WR 35 Bye Week 10

Photo Credit: WM. Glasheen/USA Today Sports

Jayden Reed excelled in his first season in the league, quickly earning Matt LaFleur’s confidence and that of first-year starter Jordan Love. The trouble though, at least from a fantasy perspective, was Reed’s inconsistent usage.

Similarly to Taysom Hill in New Orleans, Reed put up multiple high-end weeks at his position, but the lows were potentially crushing. Of course last year, owners were delighted with what they got from the rookie, having profited massively on where they drafted him, but his WR2 finish in 2023 is now priced-in.

Reed recorded four WR1 weeks last year, along with four WR2 weeks and three WR3 weeks. He however only managed to finish as a WR2 once and WR3 twice on weeks when he didn’t score a touchdown. Maybe he can reach double-digit touchdowns again in his second year, but with better health a strong hope for both Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave in 2024, it’s far from guaranteed.

Marry – Alvin Kamara (New Orleans)

ADP 50 RB 17 Bye Week 12

Photo Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Alvin Kamara entered the 2023 season in week four after a suspension and immediately set off on an eleven-game stretch finishing as an RB2 or better (12, 7, 12, 2, 4, 22, 14, 14, 2, 20, 16). But to make the case for Kamara is simpler still, from week four to week seventeen (inactive week 18), Kamara was the RB4. The pass-catching back only failed to reach RB2 numbers in two games out of thirteen last year, the second of which he left early in the third quarter, having already ran for 45 yards.

With no suspension to start 2024 and second-year back Kendre Miller struggling to stay healthy, Kamara has a clear run at what would be his fifth career RB1 season

Kill – Chris Olave (New Orleans)

ADP 22 WR 12 Bye Week 12

Photo Credit: NFL.com

There are some ADP’s and projections that I really struggle to make sense of and this year, Chris Olave going as the twelfth receiver off the board is one of them. Olave finished as the nineteenth best receiver in fantasy last year, so why the jump?

The only noticeable change in the offensive situation in New Orleans this season is new OC Clint Kubiak, but targets and opportunity weren’t an issue for Olave last year. The receiver finished the 2023 season twelfth among wide receivers in targets and of the eleven that finished ahead of him, Philadelphia’s AJ Brown had the highest ADOT with the 46th highest in the league, Olave was 24th.

The glaring issue in Olave’s numbers, at least as far as I’ve looked, is his red-zone usage. The receiver was tied for 48th in the NFL in red-zone targets, whilst of the previously mentioned eleven, ten finished inside the top twenty five and all finished ahead of Olave.

Without more red-zone usage, it’s difficult to see Olave improve on his lowly five receiving touchdowns from 2023 (tied 35th in the NFL) and aside from that, there’s not a lot of room for projected improvement with the same supporting cast.

F**K – Jaylen Wright (Miami)

ADP 145 RB 47 Bye Week 6

Photo Credit: Rich Storrey/Getty Images

Considering that you can draft Wright as the fourth back on your team, I would highly recommend you draft him in all of your leagues, regardless of the format, but he really stands out as a best ball option.

Any third-string running back is reliant on injuries to teammates or garbage time for opportunities, though few teams’ top two running backs carry the injury question marks that Raheem Mostert and De’von Achane do.

Achane’s injuries, in particular, are why I lean best ball with Wright. All of Achane’s missed time in 2023 came from injuries that were picked up in-game. This doesn’t ruin your week if he gets injured late, as he did in week five vs. the Giants, but it absolutely does if he gets injured early, as he did in week eleven vs. the Raiders.

Bottom line, you can never tell when a backup might get some unexpected game-time, but with a player as explosive as Wright, in an offense like Miami’s, you want to be in a position to profit when he does. Wright was my RB1 in this years NFL draft and he found the perfect landing spot to thrive under Mike McDaniel.

Marry – Jerome Ford (Cleveland)

ADP 116 RB 40 Bye Week 10

Photo Credit: Trot Taormina/USA Today Sports

Jerome Ford was a feature of my first article back in July and as far as I can tell, nothing has changed. The runner is still going thirty spots behind teammate Nick Chubb in drafts despite the latter being left on IR to start the season, with no promise of him returning anytime soon after that.

If you believe in Chubb returning to his former dominant ways, that’s fine, but can we please start to acknowledge the ridiculous opportunity that we have in last season’s RB17? How often can you draft a guy as an RB4 and know that he is almost a must-start for at least the first four weeks of the year.

Even if Chubb gets back on the field this year, do we really expect him to immediately pick up bell-cow usage? Ford did what he did last year despite sharing work with Kareem Hunt, including goal-line work, so I expect him to be a viable RB2/Flex option all year round.

Kill – C.J. Stroud (Houston)

ADP 46 QB 5 Bye Week 14

Photo Credit: Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports

C.J. Stroud was nothing short of phenomenal in his rookie season, as the Texans emerged out of nowhere to claim AFC contender status. Also one of the most likeable players in the NFL, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers are falling over themselves to draft him heading into year two.

I absolutely love Stroud, but in terms of fantasy, we’ve gotten way ahead of ourselves with the Houston phenom. Despite his rookie season heroics, Stroud finished as the QB11 in half-ppr in 2023, in a year when injuries plagued the position league-wide. Aaron Rodgers played just four snaps, Kirk Cousins got hurt, Joe Burrow started injured and then missed the final seven weeks.

Add in potentially healthy seasons for two of the leagues best mobile QB’s in Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson and two Promising rookies in Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, no slouches either, and QB5 just doesn’t make sense.

F**k – Isaiah Likely (Baltimore)

ADP 173 TE 21 Bye Week 14

Photo Credit: Jessica Rapfogel/USA Today Sports

I covered this in my last article regarding dynasty rebuild targets, but I couldn’t leave Isaiah Likely off of this list. The probable third pass catcher in the Ravens offense this year could be set for a massive breakout season, as two-tight end offenses begin to creep back into fashion.

The Ravens are arguably the best equipped team in the league to implement two-tight end sets due to the devastating, two-headed running attack they possess with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson and two of the best pass catching tight-ends in the NFL.

With Mark Andrews healthy, he will continue to be the main target for Jackson, but 2024 could well be the year that Likely turns into a good flex option, regardless of Andrews’ health status. With Andrews out however, Likely was the TE4 in half-ppr over the final six games of 2023, ahead of Trey McBride, George Kittle and Travis Kelce.

Andrews doesn’t have an extensive injury history, but if he does go down, you’ll have a potential league winner in Likely. If Andrews stays healthy, you’ve drafted a probable flex option with upside somewhere around the 15th round.

Marry – Jayden Daniels (Washington)

ADP 112 QB 14 Bye Week 14

Photo Credit: Lucas Boland/USA Today Sports

When it comes to fantasy football, the closest you’re ever going to get to a “sure thing” is a quarterback with elite running ability. The fact that this has supposedly become common knowledge among fantasy players makes it all the more shocking to see Jayden Daniels going where he is in drafts this year.

On a similarly poor looking Washington team last year, so poor in fact that they ended up with the second overall pick in this years draft, Sam Howell finished the season as the QB12. Yes, the same Sam Howell that threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns last year, as well as setting a new NFL record for number of times sacked in a season.

The negative game scripts, shambolic defense and pressure to scramble should all be present once more in Washington this year, and with Daniels’ far superior rushing ability (and Howell wasn’t slow) and all-round arm talent, QB12 would be a modest prediction for the rookie heading into 2024. QB14 is daylight robbery, make the most of it.

Kill – Ja’marr Chase (Cincinnati)

ADP 5 WR 4 Bye Week 12

Photo Credit: Ryan Kang/Getty Images

How does that saying go? “You can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it”. Theoretically, you should be able to auto-draft the first two rounds of a draft and everyone walk away happy, these are supposedly the reliable big-hitters that will carry most of the load for your team throughout the year.

Tell that to Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler and Jaylen Waddle owners last season. The first round or two is as much about avoiding the land mines as it is about trying to find value. Which leads me to the second Bengals player on this years Kill list, Ja’marr Chase.

There’s no doubt that talent-wise, Chase belongs right where he is among the elite pass-catchers in the NFL. But when scanning the first twelve players going off draft boards this year, none of them have as many red flags as Chase.

Jefferson balls out regardless of who’s under center, Lamb has his contract sorted, St. Brown is as reliable as it gets and Hill is the most dangerous player in the league. Chase is currently not practicing heading into week one as he seeks a new contract, his quarterback has been carefully managing a wrist injury all off-season and his receiving partner Tee Higgins was refused a trade this year.

I blame no one for taking Chase where he is going in drafts, but you can also win a league with the players going around him, and their situations are a lot less worrying.

I really hope that this article helps out with any last-minute drafts today. I’ll post this article a bit earlier next year, the idea came to me quite late but it was a fun exercise nevertheless. I’ll continue writing throughout the season so make sure to check back in, until then, enjoy the opening weekend.

ADP information taken from Draftsharks and Fantasypros.

In depth stats taken from Pro Football Reference.