The five bets I’m making this week

Week 10 brings with it the final European game of the year, which must be music to the ears of those on the West coast.

The unwavering commitment from NFL fans in Germany has certainly been tested this year though, with the Panthers and Giants chosen to make the trip across the Atlantic.

I’ve not covered the Munich game this week, though I did elude to the Giants pass defense being the difference in my start/sit article yesterday.

Instead, I’ve placed two bets on the early window, one bet on the late window and one bet each for Sunday and Monday’s prime time games.

As I did last week, and will continue to do moving forward, I’ve added an optional extra to each bet for those that like to play with higher odds.

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Sunday – Early Window

Najee Harris has been awesome in recent weeks. The Pittsburgh runner has racked up three-straight 100+ yard rushing games, adding two touchdowns in that time.

Washington‘s defense started out the year as a team I was targeting in bets, especially through the air. They have managed to tidy things up in that department of late, but have still allowed the fourth-most rushing yards/game this year, despite having a winning record.

I’m backing Harris with a comparatively modest rushing total, and you can boost your odds if you fancy him for another touchdown.

Najee Harris 75+ rushing yards 31/20

Add: Najee Harris 1+ touchdown 16/5

Minnesota @ Jacksonville

Sunday – Early Window

If you discard week 5, when he left in the second quarter with a hip injury, Aaron Jones has 35+ receiving yards in four of seven games this season.

After Saquon Barkley made 40 yards through the air last weekend, the Jaguars are now averaging 49 receiving yards/game to running backs on the year.

In fact, in just nine games, ten different running backs have now racked up 25+ yards through the air against the Jags this season.

In a game that you would expect the Vikings to win, I’m backing one of the best receiving backs in the league to get it done against a weak Jacksonville defense.

If you want to boost your odds, I’m looking to Justin Jefferson to make it three-straight 100+ yard receiving games against the second-worst pass defense in the NFL.

Aaron Jones 25+ receiving yards 21/20

Add: Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards 7/2

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Sunday – Late Window

Any excuse to use this picture.

In eight games this year, Saquon Barkley has accumulated 100+ rushing yards on five occasions and racked up 8 touchdowns in the process.

In his last three games, he has 443 rushing yards to his name, along with 3 touchdowns.

And Barkley should have plenty of opportunities to continue that form against a Dallas team that is allowing the third-most rushing yards/game this year.

As I mentioned in my start/sit article, Dallas have lost all three of their home games this year, by an average of 22 points. With Dak Prescott sidelined for the foreseeable future, it’s hard to see that form improving.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have won three of their four road games, the last two by a combined 45 points, to the Giants and Bengals.

I’m backing an elite running back against a bad run defense, with the potential for an early positive game-script.

Saquon Barkley 100+ rushing yards 27/20

Add: Saquon Barkley 1+ touchdown 11/5

Detroit @ Houston

Sunday Night Football

Whilst the likes of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have been stealing the headlines this year, Joe Mixon has racked up 100+ rushing yards in five of his six appearances for Houston.

Since returning from injury, Mixon has hit three figures in four-straight games, picking up 6 touchdowns on the way.

This weekend, he faces a Detroit Lions team that have allowed 5.7 yards/attempt on the ground in their last three games, the most in the league. Over those three games, the Lions have allowed a total of 435 total rushing yards, the tenth most in that span.

Detroit is favored in this game, and rightly so, but the positive game-scripts don’t seem to be helping their numbers against the run, whilst negative game-scripts haven’t stopped Mixon getting his work done.

Regardless of the result, I’m backing the Houston runner to continue his impressive form.

Joe Mixon 100+ rushing yards 19/10

Add: Joe Mixon 1+ touchdown 14/5

Miami @ LA Rams (Big Bet)

Monday Night Football

It would be fair to say that both the Rams and the Dolphins had higher hopes for the first half of the 2024 season. The Rams, at least, have turned in a few results recently to break even at 4-4 going into Monday Night.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, were among the worst teams in the league in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa and have a mountain to climb at 2-6.

I’m backing both starting running backs for a score this week. Kyren Williams has been awesome again this year and currently has 10 scores in eight games, while De’von Achane has 3 touchdowns in two games since Tua’s return.

Puka Nacua was ejected before he could get going last weekend, but returned from injury with 106 receiving yards in week 8, whilst Cooper Kupp has topped 100 receiving yards in both of his full games this year.

Since Tua’s return, Tyreek Hill has 72 and 80 receiving yards in his last two games. The Rams defense he faces this week, has allowed the tenth-most passing yards/game this year.

The odds boost for this bet comes in the form of the Nacua and Kupp’s reception totals. The only time Nacua’s snap-share has topped 50% this year was in week 8, when he caught 7 passes with just a 57% snap-share. Kupp has not dropped below 5 receptions in his four appearances this season, despite playing as little as 52% of offensive snaps in week 2.

K Williams and D Achane 1+ touchdown each, Nacua and Hill 75+ receiving yards, Kupp 50+ receiving yards 11/1

Add: Nacua 6+ receptions and Kupp 4+ receptions 16/1

That’s me done for the week. Best of luck with whatever you’re betting on, if anything, and have an awesome rest of your weekend.

I’m away next week, but I’ll still be writing in a limited capacity, be sure to follow or subscribe for new articles as they are released.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.