Five bets for this Sunday’s games, plus this week’s “Big Bet”, covering Monday Night Football.

So I’m a little late getting this one out, due to a storm cutting out our internet connection last night. Nevertheless, here are my six bets for week 12, covering the early and late windows, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.

Kansas City @ Carolina

Early Window

The Chiefs head into Carolina as overwhelming favorites this weekend, and I’m turning my attention to Kareem Hunt.

Carolina remain the worst run defense in the NFL this year in terms of rushing yards allowed/game (160.1), giving up 17 rushing touchdowns in the process (2nd-most).

Kareem Hunt is coming off back to back games of 14 carries, both in games in which Kansas City were trailing.

In his previous four games, between weeks 5-9, Hunt had 27, 22, 21 and 27 rush attempts and racked up 5 touchdowns, in more favorable game scripts.

I fully expect Hunt’s rush attempts to tick back over 20 this Sunday, in a game that the Chiefs should win comfortably.

Kareem Hunt 20+ rush attempts 21/20

Add: Kareem Hunt 1+ touchdown 19/10

Dallas @ Washington

Early Window

Brian Robinson has been awesome this season, and this week, faces a Dallas defense that has been abysmal against the run.

Dallas has allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards/game, the 8th-most rushing yards/attempt and the most rushing touchdowns in the league this year.

Last week, the Cowboys allowed Joe Mixon to run in 3 scores in a blowout loss to the Texans. Brian Robinson has 7 touchdowns in 8 games so far and remains the goal line back for the Commanders.

Brian Robinson 1+ touchdown 4/6

Brian Robinson 2+ touchdowns 15/4

Tampa Bay @ New York (Giants)

Early Window

The last of three bad run defenses I’m attacking this week are the Giants.

Whilst negative game scripts will naturally add to opposition rushing totals, it’s the yards/attempt that the Giants are allowing that stands out.

5.3 rushing yards/attempt is the most allowed by any team this year. In their last outing, the Giants allowed Chuba Hubbard to rumble for 153 yards and a score in Munich.

Bucky Irving now seems to be the running back of choice for Tampa Bay, with Rachaad White dominating the passing down work. Irving rushed for 73 yards on 13 carries in the Buccaneers’ last game vs the 49ers.

I’m not expecting the blowout that some are, after Tommy DeVito was named QB1 for New York. I do though expect a positive enough game script for Irving to get plenty of opportunities to do damage.

Bucky Irving rushing prop: Over 53.5 rushing yards 4/5

Bucky Irving 70+ rushing yards 19/10

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Late Window

Both the 49ers and Packers defenses rank in the top 10 for interceptions this year, the 49ers having managed one more with 11.

On the other side of the ball, Jordan Love has yet to complete a game without throwing at least one interception, racking up 11 in just 8 games.

For San Francisco, Brock Purdy was officially ruled out earlier this week with a shoulder injury, meaning that Brandon Allen will start under center this Sunday.

Allen, has racked up just three pass attempts since the 2021 season ended, so who knows what we might get from him. With the Packers favored though, in a cold Lambeau Field, Allen could well be forced to air it out as the game progresses.

Jordan Love 1+ interception 5/6

Add: Brandon Allen 1+ interception 23/10

Philadelphia @ LA (Rams)

Sunday Night Football

I’ve been trying to wrap my head around the Dallas Goedert receiving prop since I first saw it, but it still makes no sense to me.

Last week, Goedert caught 5 of 5 for 61 yards.

Admittedly, he hasn’t racked up that kind of yardage consistently, but Devonte Smith has been ruled out for this game, which is massive for the Eagles tight-end.

In weeks 3 and 4, with AJ Brown sidelined, Goedert put up 170 yards and 62 yards respectively, since then, both Brown and Smith have been available when Goedert has played.

This week, the Eagles face a Rams team that have allowed the 11th-most passing yards/game. It’s also worth noting that with Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, the Rams can turn any game into a shoot-out.

Dallas Goedert receiving prop: Over 48.5 receiving yards 10/11

Dallas Goedert 60+ receiving yards 8/5

Baltimore @ LA (Chargers)

Monday Night Football (Big Bet)

This week’s “Big Bet” covers the match-up between the Harbaugh brothers on Monday Night Football.

Justin Herbert is coming off a 65-yard rushing game in week 11 and has now averaged 37 rushing yards/game over his last four, as he seems to have been given more freedom recently.

Herbert has also been throwing the ball more since the team’s week 5 bye, and has 2+ passing touchdowns in three of his last four games. Factor in that Baltimore have allowed 5 passing touchdowns and just 1 rushing touchdown in their last three games, and we should probably expect more of the same.

One likely benefactor of that is Chargers tight-end Will Dissly. Dissly has established himself as the TE1 for the team in the last few games and caught his first touchdown of the year last week.

On the Baltimore side, Lamar Jackson has topped this weeks rushing prop in 8 of 11 games this year and may be forced to scramble more against a Chargers defense that ranks joint-5th in sacks.

To finish off, Derrick Henry still has yet to finish a game without a touchdown, tallying 15 scores in 11 games so far.

Justin Herbert rushing prop: Over 19.5 rushing yards, Justin Herbert 2+ passing touchdowns, Lamar Jackson rushing prop: Over 44.5 rushing yards, Will Dissly and Derrick Henry 1+ touchdown 22/1

That’s all from me, I wish you all a great rest of your weekend. Good luck with whatever your betting on and feel free to let me know in the comments.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Focus.

Odds taken from Bet365 (UK).