With four games in the books already for NFL week 13, let’s look ahead to Sunday’s games and the betting opportunities that the bring.

This week, I haven’t included Monday Night Football, instead doubling up on the 49ers’ trip to the Bills on Sunday Night Football.

My Bets For NFL Week 13

LA Chargers @ Atlanta

Early Window

Whilst last week’s “Big Bet” didn’t come in, Justin Herbert made good on his rushing prop, carrying for 29 yards against Baltimore.

This week, Herbert’s rushing prop stands at 22.5 yards, a figure he has now hit comfortably in each of his last three games.

Herbert rushing more is definitely a trend, we’ve seen the Chargers lean more on their QB in recent weeks and I see no reason to for that to change this week.

I’ve added Bijan Robinson’s rushing prop as an optional extra. Robinson has gone over 74.5 yards in four of his last six games, one of the remaining two games was the blowout loss to Denver, but Atlanta face a kinder defense this time around.

The Chargers entered this week allowing the third-most rushing yards/attempt over their last five games (5.1), as their “bend, but don’t break” approach allows for some significant yardage.

Justin Herbert over 22.5 rushing yards 10/11

Add: Bijan Robinson over 74.5 rushing yards 14/5

Houston @ Jacksonville

Early Window

The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed the most passing yards/game in the league this year.

I always have some hesitation betting against a team that has had a bye week to straighten things up, but the Jags have had all year to fix their defense, without success.

Tank Dell has topped 51.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games going for 72 last week against the Titans. The Titans, for what it’s worth, have given up the least passing yards/game in the league this season.

The return of Trevor Lawrence is a plus for Jacksonville, but I’ve gone the other way with the optional extra.

As mentioned in my start/sit article, Lawrence faces a Texans pass defense that are pressuring on 26.3% of drop-backs, tied for sixth-most in the NFL. In addition, the Texans defense has the second-most picks on the year, with 15.

Tank Dell over 51.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Trevor Lawrence 1+ interception 23/10

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Late Window

Last week, in his first game back since week seven, Mike Evans racked up 68 receiving yards despite playing only 60% of offensive snaps.

This week, against a Panthers pass defense that have given up the fifth-most yards/attempt this season, and another week removed from his injury, Evans’ receiving prop is 62.5 yards.

Evans also had six touchdowns before his week seven injury. Now that he should be back to playing a full compliment of snaps, I’ve backed him to add to that this Sunday.

Carolina has also given up the fourth-most receiving touchdowns on the year.

Mike Evans over 62.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Mike Evans 1+ touchdowns 19/10

San Francisco @ Buffalo

Sunday Night Football

The 49ers can look ahead to their game in Buffalo this Sunday night with significantly more optimism, with the news that Brock Purdy is expected to return after missing week 12.

In his last two games with Purdy, Jauan Jennings has caught 17 of 22 targets for 184 yards and a score.

Despite this, Jennings’ receiving yards prop for this game is a mere 52.5 yards.

The wind and snow will certainly be a factor in this one, but if the Bills can capitalize and get ahead early, that probably suits this bet even more.

I’ve added a receptions total to this one as the optional extra, which is one reception higher than his prop, but still feels comfortable.

Jauan Jennings over 52.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Jauan Jennings 6+ receptions 14/5

San Francisco @ Buffalo

Sunday Night Football (Big Bet)

With the news that Purdy is set to play against the Bills, I couldn’t help but look to this game for this week’s “Big Bet”.

Brock Purdy’s rushing yards prop is 17.5 for this game, a number he has surpassed if five of his last six games. On a windy, snowy evening in Buffalo, Purdy should be topping this once more, just to keep warm if nothing else.

In all seriousness though, the conditions are likely to encourage QB’s to avoid the higher, deeper passes that could get them in trouble. Expect some shorter, safer passes and some quarterback scrambles.

With that in mind, I’ve also backed Josh Allen to top his rushing yard prop, which this week is 31.5. Allen has rushed for 50 and 55 yards in his last two games.

James Cook was targeted six times against Kansas City in week 11 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see similar usage in this one. If that’s not the case though, he should still have no trouble topping his 2.5 receptions prop.

The optional extra comes in the form of a touchdown scorer. Of the 15 targets, from inside the ten, that Josh Allen has dished out this season, 12 have gone to players that stand 6’4″.

Dalton Kincaid (4) is out and Keon Coleman (4) is questionable, so there could be opportunity there. With Kincaid sidelined, Dawson Knox saw six targets in week 11 and has always been an end-zone threat for Josh Allen.

I’d probably favor Coleman if he plays, but Knox could be amazing value if Coleman can’t go. I’ll be making my decision when that situation becomes clearer.

Brock Purdy over 17.5 rushing yards, Josh Allen over 31.5 rushing yards, James Cook over 2.5 receptions 7/1

Add: Keon Coleman 1+ touchdown 20/1

Or: Dawson Knox 1+ touchdown 20/1

That’s me done for another week. As always, I hope this article helped inspire a few of your own bets this Sunday. Have an awesome rest of your weekend and I’ll be back next week.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Focus.

Odds from Bet365 (UK).