Six bets I’m making this NFL weekend

NFL week 14 brings with it 13 games to figure out with both fantasy football and betting in mind. For those that missed it, my fantasy football start/sit article is available here.

For betting though, I’ve focused on five games this weekend, covering the early and late window, Sunday Night Football and Monday night’s match-up between the Bengals and Cowboys.

This week’s “Big Bet” is a running back parlay, spread across five games.

Week 14 NFL Bets

Jaguars @ Titans

Early Window

In week 13, with Gabe Davis joining Christian Kirk on the Jacksonville injured list, Parker Washington stepped up with six catches on twelve targets, for 103 yards and a touchdown.

Whilst I don’t expect Washington to repeat those numbers against the Titans on Sunday, his receiving props are incredibly low considering what he did against Houston.

Over their last five games, the Texans have allowed a 60.5% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, the third-lowest in the league. Over the Titans’ last five games, they’ve allowed a 70.1% completion percentage, the fifth-highest in that span.

Parker Washington over 2.5 receptions 4/6

Parker Washington 4+ receptions 29/20

Jets @ Dolphins

Early Window

De’Von Achane’s receiving prop is 30.5 yards this weekend, a number he has topped in four of his last six games.

Aiding his cause has been that Miami has averaged the lowest intended air yards/attempt in the NFL over their last five games. Achane continues to be one of the most electric players in the league with the ball in his hands and the team are more than happy to give it to him.

This week, he faces a once-proud Jets defense that has accumulated the fourth-most missed tackles in the NFL this year.

Achane has added to his frightening speed this year with a eye for the end-zone, the second-year back has tallied seven touchdowns in his last six games.

De’Von Achane over 30.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: De’Von Achane 1+ touchdown 19/10

Bears @ 49ers

Late Window

Isaac Guerendo shot to the top of fantasy football waiver wires this week after news broke that both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were heading to injured reserve.

I recommended Guerendo as a player to start in my start/sit article this week, and I’m doubling down here.

In two games with 10+ carries this season, Guerendo recorderd 10 for 99 yards in week six, and 14 for 85 yards and a touchdown in week 8.

This week, he faces a Bears run defense that has allowed 5.1 yards/attempt over their last five games, the most in the NFL.

Isaac Guerendo over 72.5 rushing yards 10/11

Add: Isaac Guerendo 1+ touchdown 19/10

Chargers @ Chiefs

Sunday Night Football

Xavier Worthy heads into this weekend on the back of three straight games with 46+ receiving yards. Whilst Worthy’s big-play threat can be difficult to project, Worthy’s increased yardage has come as a result of a slight uptick in targets, rather than random chunk plays.

A factor that should help both him continue that impressive form, is the Chargers’ willingness to give up completions and yardage underneath.

The Chargers don’t currently have the personnel on defense to be more aggressive effectively. Instead, they sit a little deeper and rely on their defensive backs to limit big plays and touchdowns.

Another player consistently topping his week 14 receiving prop has been Travis Kelce. Kelce’s prop this week stands at 58.5 receiving yards, despite Kelce hitting 62+ receiving yards in five of his last six, and seven of his last nine.

Xavier Worthy over 37.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Travis Kelce over 58.5 receiving yards 13/5

Bengals @ Cowboys

Monday Night Football

The Bengals head to Dallas on Monday night to face a Dallas team that looks to have turned a corner after winning their last two.

However, the Cowboys are still allowing the league’s second-highest yards/carry over their last five games, something Chase Brown will be looking to take advantage of.

The Bengals appear to have gone all-in on Brown in recent weeks, with the running back’s snap-share increasing to 80+% over their last four games.

Brown has 70+ rushing yards in three of those four games, and 30+ receiving yards in all four. The only game in which Brown failed to hit 70 receiving yards was against the Ravens, one of the best run defenses in the NFL this year.

With the Bengals offense playing as well as they have been this year, Brown could face a very run-friendly game script on Monday, despite Dallas’ recent turnaround.

Chase Brown over 24.5 receiving yards 10/11

Add: Chase Brown 75.5 rushing yards 5/2

Week 14 “Big Bet”

Five-game parlay- Early, Late and Monday Night Football

For this week’s “big bet”, I’ve simply backed five solid running backs that all face bottom-six run defenses this week.

Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Isaac Guerendo, Najee Harris and Kyren Williams are all good running backs in their own right. Four of these running backs will also be handling goal-line carries this weekend.

The only one who isn’t guaranteed those goal-line touches, has 13 touchdowns in 12 games this season for the Eagles.

The defenses trying to stop these five backs are the Bears, Panthers, Cowboys, Browns and the Bills.

Those first four defenses are the four worst run-defenses in the league over their last five games, in yards allowed/attempt, the Bills are tied for sixth-worst.

I’ve backed all five backs for a modest yardage total and a score this weekend.

Saquon Barkley, Isaac Guerendo, Najee Harris, Kyren Williams and Chase Brown 50+ rushing yards and 1+ touchdown 20.49/1

That’s it from me this week, I hope I’ve given you some things to consider when placing your own bets this NFL weekend. Let me know what you’re backing in the comments and remember to always gamble responsibly.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference.

Odds from Bet365 (UK).