The five NFL bets I’m placing this Sunday

The halfway point of the season is upon us and the league is starting to take a more familiar shape. The reigning champions are unbeaten, whilst the worst team in the league last year, are again the worst team in the league.

With a full sixteen games to choose from this weekend, I’ve focused on Sunday, with three bets covering the early window, one in the late window and this week’s “big bet” covering Sunday Night Football.

As always, I’m attacking bad defenses, but this week I’m also looking for players to step up in place of injured teammates, with a host of big-name players going down in week 7.

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Photo Credit: Eric Hartline/USA Today Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars have so far allowed C.J Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Flacco to throw for over 330 yards, and were diced by rookies Caleb Williams and Drake Maye for a combined six touchdowns over two weeks in London.

Green Bay receiver Christian Watson is fully healthy again after being limited since his week four ankle injury against the Vikings.

When on the field, Watson has averaged 11.2 yards/target on 14 targets so far, scoring two touchdowns. He couldn’t have wished for a better match-up for his deep ball and end-zone prowess this weekend.

Christian Watson 50+ receiving yards and 1+ TD 6/1

Tennessee @ Detroit

Photo Credit: Matt Krohn/Imagn Images

It’s difficult at this point to know how good this Titans defense is. Through six games, they are among the best in the league in terms of yards allowed per attempt, both on the ground and through the air.

They have, though, played several backup quarterbacks in that time as well as Caleb Williams on his NFL debut.

In their first top tier challenge of the season, the Titans allowed Josh Allen to throw for 323 yards and two touchdowns last weekend. On the ground, they kept things respectable in terms of yards, but still aloud two further touchdowns.

Either way, the Detroit Lions are among the best teams in the league and are rightly big favorites to dominate this one.

I’m backing David Montgomery to continue his ridiculous touchdown scoring form and the Lions defense to make life hell for stand-in Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph.

David Montgomery 50+ rushing yards and 1+ TD, Mason Rudolph 1+ interception 11/4

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Photo Credit: Cliff Welch/Pewter Report

Week 7 was an absolute horror show for Buccaneers fans.

But even with star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin now sidelined, there remains some talented pass-catchers at Baker Mayfield‘s disposal.

Last week provided a much needed receiving performance from Rachaad White. The running back’s starting job was under threat as both Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker impressed in White’s absence, in the team’s week 6 demolition of New Orleans.

White caught 6 of 6 for 71 yards and two scores against the Ravens, whilst tight-end Cade Otton also had his best game of the year, catching 8 of 10 for 100 yards.

Baker Mayfield currently boasts the 5th-most attempts in the league and the 2nd-most completions, many of which will now be directed at White and Otton.

Rachaad White 25+ receiving yards and Cade Otton 50+ receiving yards 3/1

Carolina @ Denver

Photo Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA Today Sports

Until last week, the Denver Broncos had really struggled to get their run game going, besides their rookie quarterback, Bo Nix. Nix had his best rushing week of the season before the team’s bye, racking up 61 yards with his legs against the Chargers in week 5.

He topped that in week 7, scampering for 75 yards against the Saints, but it was refreshing to see Javonte Williams also have a big game. The Broncos RB1 ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns, adding 23 more yards through the air.

Whilst he’d matched that yardage total before, his first two touchdowns of the year felt like a big statement, and set him up perfectly for a massive game this weekend.

The Panthers are still terrible and I feel like I lay out their defensive struggles every week in one form or another. So I’ll just mention that the 8th worst defense, through the opening seven games of a season, in NFL history, is allowing a league-high (shocker) 162.1 rushing yards/game.

Javonte Williams 75+ rushing yards, Bo Nix 25+ rushing yards 13/4

Dallas @ San Francisco (Big Bet)

Photo Credit: Emilee Chinn/AP Photo

It’s National Tight Ends Day, so it only felt right to dedicate this week’s “big bet” to one of the very best around.

In what feels like a must-win game for both teams, it’s a shame to have players like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Micah Parsons out injured.

Neither team has great vibes going into this one, but it’s a huge prime time game between two colossal NFL franchises and all three of those players offer potential fireworks when healthy.

Whilst San Francisco will have been licking their wounds after another humbling defeat to the Chiefs last week, Dallas were atrocious before their week 7 bye. The Cowboys went down 47-9 to the Lions in front of their own fans and face another really good defense this week.

Dalvin Cook is set to be given an opportunity for Dallas, but if that fails to invigorate a spluttering run game, Dak Prescott will be a sitting duck once again.

For the 49ers, with Brandon Aiyuk’s season over and Jauan Jennings also sidelined, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will likely dominate the receiving work.

In this fixture last season, George Kittle caught three passes for three touchdowns in a huge win for the 49ers, and I’m backing him for another big game this weekend.

Kittle is currently tied for 3rd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (5) and has the 2nd-most targets inside the ten-yard line (7), catching 6.

Dallas have given up 7.9 yards/pass attempt this year, the 6th-highest in the league, and 8.56 yards/target to tight-ends.

George Kittle 75+ receiving yards and 2+ touchdowns, Dak Prescott 1+ interception, Nick Bosa 1+ sack 35/1

Whatever you’re betting on, I wish you the very best of luck and an awesome Sunday. I’ll be back on Wednesday with the weekly round-up and the fantasy fallout.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Reference

Odds taken from Bet365 (UK)