Odds taken from Bet365 (UK) at time of writing

Photo Credit: Getty Images

Week 6 got underway with the San Francisco 49ers holding out for a win against Seattle after pulling away in the first half. That result leaves both teams at 3-3 atop the NFC West, with Arizona looking to join them on Sunday, when they travel to Green Bay.

For this week’s bets, I’ve scaled back on the odds a little bit after going 0-5 last weekend. I’ve definitely become more sensible with age but I’m still prone to getting drawn in to bigger odds from time to time.

The touchdown parlay idea, whilst fun, is just too volatile for me to feel comfortable recommending each week. Instead, I’ll put together one bet each week with much bigger odds, but one that is far more logical.

So here are my four tips for the weekend, plus one “Big Bet” for those that, like me, like to go big.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

The NFC North is a really fun division. It’s not up there with some of the others in terms of quality in depth, but I think it deserves more credit for entertainment. Divisional games in the South are usually pretty interesting and we now have three legitimately good offenses fighting for supremacy.

This match-up is arguably the most tasty. With the sub-plot of Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore always simmering, you never know when it might boil over.

I’m avoiding Mike Evans altogether in this one, for reasons I’ll explain in my first ever start/sit article later on. I recommended Cade Otton in my buy-low’s earlier in the week and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.

The Saints have allowed the third most receiving yards in the league to tight-ends this year and with Evans potentially locked down, I fancy Otton to eat, in what could be a shoot out.

On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers have allowed the third most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Alvin Kamara has recorded seven and six receptions in his last two games, respectively.

Cade Otton 50+ receiving yards, Alvin Kamara 6+ receptions 15/2

Cleveland @ Philadelphia

Cleveland heads into this game as the biggest underdog of the weekend, with the spread at 8.5 as I write this. Upsets can come from anywhere but Deshaun Watson has been abysmal so far. He faces an Eagles defense that have been fairly QB-friendly this season, but you just can’t see where the spark is going to come from for the Browns.

Watson has been sacked a league-high 26 times already this season, which will encourage an Eagles pass-rush that have struggled to get to QB’s to start the year. Josh Sweat opened his sack account before the bye week in his third start for the Eagles, he leads the team with four QB hits on the year.

Philadelphia have both AJ Brown and Devonte Smith back for this one, but I still expect Saquon Barkley to get his work done. I’ve backed him to continue his impressive touchdown rate, whilst playing a bit safer on the spread in an Eagles home win.

Eagles -6.5, Saquon Barkley 1+ touchdowns, Josh Sweat 1+ Sack 16/5

Arizona @ Green Bay

There should be offensive fireworks at Lambeau Field this Sunday as two of the most exciting offenses in league are set to go back and forth for sixty blistering minutes.

Whilst I love the passing attacks in this one, I’ve backed three players on the ground this week, rather than trying to pick between a plethora of receiving talent.

Arizona have allowed the sixth most rushing yards (739) in the league this year, as well as the second most rushing touchdowns (8). Josh Jacobs has averaged 80.4 yards/game on the ground this year, something I expect him to continue as Matt LaFleur looks to control what could otherwise be a wild game.

For the away side, Kyler Murray has averaged 49.4 rushing yards/game so far and his trusty running back, James Conner, has rumbled for 75.8 yards/game. Fellow mobile QB’s Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson both ran for over thirty yards against Green Bay this year, so I’m backing Murray to do the same.

Josh Jacobs 75+ rushing yards and 1+ touchdown, James Conner 50+ rushing yards, Kyler Murray 25+ rushing yards 11/2

Buffalo @ New York (Jets)

The Jets made the controversial, yet unsurprising, decision to fire their head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday after a disappointing performance against the Minnesota Vikings in London. Harsh really, as Saleh’s defense allowed only one touchdown in the loss, whilst Aaron Rodgers and his friends fell apart against, admittedly, the best defense in the league.

After it’s latest dark turn, the Aaron Rodgers story in New York enters a new chapter. With the future hall-of-famer’s power appearing to be at an all-time high within the organization, it’s a relationship that could sour very quickly if Rodgers continues to struggle.

Contrary to my, perhaps unfairly, gloomy outlook on the Jets, I’m backing them to upset the odds and beat Josh Allen and company at home on Monday Night. I don’t have the stats on head coach firings to hand, but the fact that the “new head coach bounce” theory applies across multiple sports, it’s a factor that I definitely lean into.

Slightly off-brand for Josh Allen this year, is the fact that he is yet to throw his first interception of the year. All good things come to an end though and the Jets will fancy themselves to be the ones to do it. The Jets defense has pressured QB’s on 29.9% of drop-backs this year, the sixth most in the NFL and the highest rate that Allen will have faced this season.

Add that to arguably the most talented secondary in the league and I fancy the Jets to pick off Allen at least once, especially at home. I’m also backing another touchdown for Allen Lazard, who has four on the year. Lazard’s hands have been inconsistent at times but that hasn’t stopped Rodgers from targeting his friend, at times, perhaps, to the detriment of his team.

Allen Lazard 1+ touchdown, Josh Allen 1+ interception 5/1

Allen Lazard 1+ touchdown, Josh Allen 1+ interception, Jets money line 17/2

Big Bet Of The Week

Photo Credit: Quinn Harris/Getty Images

Jacksonville @ Chicago

I’m going all-in on the Bears this week, as they travel to London to face the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Caleb Williams and the Bears appear to have found their groove, winning two on the bounce after a shaky 1-2 start. Jacksonville, on the other hand, tried their absolute best to throw away their only win of the season against the Colts last week.

They say defense travels, which is a shame for Jacksonville. The Jags have allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs this year (285) and four rushing touchdowns, through five games.

For the last two seasons, the rushing touchdown leader at the end of each season has been whoever was taking goal-line carries away from D’Andre Swift (Jamaal Williams in 2022, Jalen Hurts in 2023), which this year is Roschon Johnson. Johnson has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games, as he has now officially taken over those duties from Swift.

Jacksonville has also allowed the most receiving yards this year, to wide-receivers. I’m backing DJ Moore to pick up where he left off against Carolina last week, when he blew the Panthers away with 105 yards and two touchdowns.

D’Andre Swift 50+ receiving yards, DJ Moore 75+ receiving yards, DJ Moore and Roschon Johnson both to score 1+ touchdown 70/1

That’s all for this week’s bets. If you’re backing any of these, or have any of your own lined up, feel free to drop a comment. I’ll be releasing my first ever start/sit article before Sunday’s games, so make sure to check back in before then, or subscribe if you want to be notified.

Best of luck!

In-depth stats taken from Pro Football Reference