1QB, Half-PPR ADP taken from Sleeper

Personally, I never like the look of my team unless I have some elite talent at receiver, which in an inflated 2024 receiver market, means investing early in the position or quickly missing out.

Maybe fantasy players have reacted too strongly to the NFL’s apparent devaluing of the running back position, either way, you can be playing catch-up very quickly in drafts this year if you neglect receiver early.

Here is a list of four running backs, going in round seven or later, that should more than hold their own in 2024 and help you and your elite receivers on your way to a title.

Raheem Mostert (MIAMI)

ADP 84 OVR/RB 26/Bye Week 6

Photo credit: Sam Navarro – USA Today Sports

Raheem Mostert absolutely exploded in 2023, only falling outside RB2 range on two occasions when healthy during the regular season, finishing as the RB2 overall in half-ppr. Despite this, the Miami speedster is being drafted 25th at his position this year, seemingly being written off as a one-hit-wonder by drafters concerned about the players age and injury history.

Another factor holding back Mostert’s ADP this off-season is the expectation that his running back partner in 2023, then rookie De’von Achane, is set to take over the Dolphins backfield, relegating Mostert to a support role in 2024. Achane was far from the picture of health himself in 2023, missing five games completely and being forced off after just one run and one target on his return from injury in week 11.

Whilst Achane’s season could be looked at through the lens of his ludicrous 7.8ypc average in his debut season, it could just as easily be summed up by his failure to stay healthy. Even if Achane does stay healthy in 2024, there has been absolutely no indication from the Dolphins camp that they are moving on from Mostert as the lead back, to the contrary, the team extended his contract back in March.

Summary

Whilst he will almost certainly not reach his franchise record-breaking 21 TD’s in 2024, Mostert should continue to have a solid role in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. I anticipate a high-end RB2 season for Mostert, with several RB1 weeks sprinkled in, regardless of Achane’s health.

And if you are concerned about Mostert’s injury history, just take a last-round flyer on Jaylen Wright as insurance, because whoever is on the field for Miami this year is set to score very well in fantasy.

Brian Robinson Jr. (WASHINGTON)

ADP 107/RB 35/Bye Week 14

Photo credit: Susan Walsh – AP

Robinson’s ADP of RB35 might not seem too egregious at first glance. The Commanders runner was the RB22 in half-ppr last season and now has Austin Ekeler to compete with for snaps.

One thing working in Robinson’s favour however is the admission from Ekeler that he left the Chargers this off-season because he was no longer interested in being a 300-touch back in the NFL, something he would no-doubt have received assurances about before signing in Washington.

Whilst most would expect Ekeler to take the majority of passing down work for his new team, Robinson was not the preferred pass-catcher in the Commanders backfield last season either. In addition, new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is set to run a lot more no-huddle offense than Washington saw last year, giving Robinson much more opportunity if he can secure first-down work.

Also working against Robinson is the likelihood of rookie QB Jayden Daniels stealing some rushing touchdown’s in the redzone. This is something that Robinson dealt with last year however, with Sam Howell racking up five rushing touchdowns, so he really shouldn’t be marked down too much for this.

Overall, the most significant change that Robinson is likely to face is increased rushing opportunity. Washington ranked dead-last in run percentage in 2023, whilst Kingsbury’s Cardinals were eleventh highest in run rate. Robinson rushed 178 times in 2023, whilst James Conner racked up 208 attempts in just 13 appearances in Arizona.

Summary

Going in round 10, Robinson could easily end up as the third running back on your roster, even if you ignore the position all-together in the early rounds. I don’t project an RB1 season by any means, but there is no reason at all that we shouldn’t see a repeat of last season’s RB2 finish, maybe even with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers.

Jerome Ford (CLEVELAND)

ADP 126/RB41/Bye Week 10

Photo credit: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Sometimes in fantasy football, there are glaring questions that just seem to go unaddressed by the entire industry, despite the enormous relevance that lay in the answers to those questions. These next two players both fall into that category, but perhaps for different reasons. Either way, it’s created an enormous opportunity to grab running backs with monstrous ceilings in the later rounds.

Understandably, off-season talk around the Browns running back room this year has centered around Nick Chubb, arguably the most gifted natural runner in the league before his injury. But whilst there is an acknowledgement that Chubb may not return by the start of the season and may never return to the same level as before, there has been little talk of Cleveland’s other running back options, which seems careless.

Nick Chubb’s horrendous injury in week two last year presented an enormous workload for Cleveland’s other running backs to compete for moving forward. Under these circumstances, Ford managed an RB17 finish in half-ppr leagues, despite watching on as teammate Kareem Hunt handled the majority of goal-line work for the Browns.

Cleveland were fourth in run attempts over the course of the 2023 regular season, even with Chubb injured in week two. Even week one, with a healthy Nick Chubb running 18 times for over 100 yards, Ford still saw a 41% snap-share and ran the ball 15 times, so Ford is a very relevant back, regardless of Chubb’s injury status.

Summary

Kareem Hunt has been replaced in Cleveland by former Chicago running back D’Onta Foreman, a talented back who could compliment Ford’s more boom/bust rushing figures if Chubb remains sidelined, but won’t threaten Ford’s receiving usage. In a split backfield, Ford produced 4 RB1 weeks and a further 6 RB2 finishes in 2023. There is definitely the potential for bust weeks with Ford, but in just his third year in the league, a low-end RB1 season is not out of the question either, should Chubb struggle for health.

Gus Edwards (LA CHARGERS)

ADP 111/RB37/Bye Week 5

Photo credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

In the build-up to the 2024 NFL draft, there were a few names that stood out as running back prospects in an otherwise, if you were to believe analysts, underwhelming class. But whoever your favourite running back was, the RB1 and RB2 in dynasty rookie drafts this year was always going to be whichever day-2 backs landed on the Cowboys and the Chargers. Dallas had a glaring need at the position and if Jerry Jones was to be believed, Jonathon Brooks was the man “High, high, high” on his teams hit list, whilst many believed that Michigan back Blake Corum was the obvious choice to follow his run-obsessed head coach to the west coast.

Fast-forward to the end of day two and, to the shock of fans and analysts alike, neither team had added a running back to their roster. Whilst Dallas was undoubtedly the bigger eyebrow-raiser, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers were seen as the promised land for a running back prospect, given the legendary Michigan coach’s reliance on the position in his previous job.

So what about Gus Edwards? Edwards is projected by most to be the starting running back, on a team that, pre-draft, was considered one of the top two landing spots in the league for a running back. He was brought to the team by the current staff, who then neglected to add a running back in the draft until the sixth round. Oh, and the role he is projected to fill is the same role that Austin Ekeler just vacated because he didn’t want 300 TOUCHES A SEASON!

Summary

Gus Edwards’ stock will, health allowing, undoubtedly rise continuously from now until September. Some players just aren’t “sexy” enough names to promote or get excited about, but the reluctance to acknowledge Edwards despite writing off the Chargers passing attack because of the volume he is about to receive, is just idiotic. I confidently project Edwards’ floor to be a low-end RB2, but expect him to push for an RB1 finish in 2024, winning plenty of fantasy leagues in the process.

This article is the first fantasy football piece that I have ever written, so please feel free to share or leave feedback if you’ve found any value in it, or list your own sleeper running backs in the comments. Thank you!