First of all, apologies for the lack of a week 12 review this week, I realize I’ve not posted since last weekend’s betting preview.

The reason for this is that I’ve begun a writing job with LastWordOnSports.com, and with it being Thanksgiving, things have taken a little longer to sort out.

I won’t use this blog to promote my paid work, but I’ll probably leave links to my writing there in case you feel curious.

For now though, it’s time for my weekend starts and sits.

I found it more difficult to find players to sit this week. I’m not really sure why, but note that two of the three players in that section are to be monitored for injury news as we start to get word of player availability today.

Week 13 Starts and Sits

Start – Gus Edwards (LA Chargers)

Gus Edwards was at the top of the waiver wire priority list this week after news that J.K. Dobbins could miss significant time, with a knee injury he picked up against Baltimore.

Edwards was a surprise standout with Baltimore last season and now has a great opportunity, in a good offense, to provide similar value for fantasy managers moving forward.

This week, Edwards faces an Atlanta defense that has allowed the tenth-most yards/attempt in the league over their last five games. Add in some obvious touchdown upside and Edwards may be set for a massive week.

Regarding game-script, the spread only favors the Chargers by a single point in this one. However, the Chargers have the second-best half-time points differential in the league over their last five games, Atlanta has the seventh-worst.

Start – Marquez Valdes-Scantling (New Orleans)

When he’s not messing up the consistency of my headings with his annoyingly long name, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been shredding defenses since moving to New Orleans.

After his breakout game against the Falcons in week 12, it was understandable that fantasy managers remained unconvinced about a player who has disappointed so regularly in the past.

After his second massive game on the bounce, however, I find it incredible that MVS remains on waiver wires in so many leagues.

WR9 overall (half-ppr) over the last three weeks, despite being on bye for one of them, MVS now faces a Rams defense that has given up the second-most yards/pass attempt this year (8.2).

With Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense likely to push the points total, and Derek Carr needing no encouragement to throw it deep, Valdes-Scantling is set up perfectly to explode again on Sunday.

Start – Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)

To say that Michael Pittman has disappointed in fantasy this year would be more than an understatement. To this point in the season, the receiver has less weekly finishes inside the top 20 at the position, than he does outside the top 80.

But that sole top-20 finish, WR15 overall, came last weekend against Detroit. Pittman was targeted seven times, catching six for 96 yards.

With Anthony Richardson looking more confident each week, following his embarrassing benching earlier in the year, the Colts face a Patriots team who have struggled against the pass this year.

Through the air this season, New England has allowed the 11th-most yards/game and are tied for eighth-most yards/attempt and sixth-most touchdowns allowed.

Josh Downs has stepped up as the standout Colts receiver this year, but the second-year man is not practicing this week and is expected to miss Sunday’s match-up. Pittman will be favorite to step in to more targets, with end-zone work also a likelihood for the 6’4″ receiver.

Sit – Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville)

After missing Jacksonville’s last two games with a shoulder injury, Trevor Lawrence is expected to make his return against Houston on Sunday.

I saw a post on “X” earlier today, claiming that Houston are a pass-funnel defense… here are some stats.

Through the air this season, the Houston defense is tied-sixth in pressure percentage (26.3%), tied for sixth-fewest yards allowed per attempt (6.7) and have allowed the fifth-fewest yards/game. They also boast the second-most interceptions (15).

Over their last five games, Houston has allowed the fourth-lowest passer rating (76.9) and the second-lowest completion percentage to quarterbacks (56%).

Add to this that Lawrence, whilst fully expected to play, has been limited in practice this week and I wouldn’t expect him to be at his best. Also worth considering, is that if Houston manages to rack up a significant lead, which isn’t out of the question, Mac Jones will likely see out garbage time with Lawrence not 100%.

Sit – Nick Chubb (Cleveland)

Nick Chubb is coming off his best fantasy week since January 8th 2023. After a slow ramp-up since returning from injury in week 7 this year, Chubb finally finished as a top-ten running back last weekend.

Whilst his number of carries and rushing yards were both also season highs, his two rushing touchdowns did most of the heavy lifting in week 12.

Of the 23 players with 10+ carries in week 12, Chubb ranked 18th in yards/attempt (2.95). Of the seven players with 20+ carries, Chubb was dead last in total yards, a full 40 yards adrift of Jahmyr Gibbs, who carried only once more.

In fact, since his return, Chubb has only topped 3.25 yards/attempt once in five games.

This week, Chubb is matched-up against a Denver run-defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards/attempt in their last five games. In that same stretch, they have allowed only two rushing touchdowns, making it six total rushing touchdowns in twelve games this season.

In terms of game-script, Denver’s half-time points differential over their last five games is +15, whilst the Browns are down 23 points over their last five first halves.

Sit – Jauan Jennings? (San Francisco)

Kyle Shanahan may be the most frustrating coach in the league when it comes to player injuries.

If Brock Purdy plays on Sunday, ignore this take completely, but it will likely be an infuriating wait on that news.

With Purdy out last week, Jennings‘ targets dropped by four, his catches dropped by five and his yards dropped by 51 on the previous week. Notably, that game was also played in Green Bay, far from the warmth of California, this week he’s in Buffalo.

Along with the cold, the 49ers will have to contend with a Bills defense that have allowed the second-fewest yards/completion, and is tied for sixth-fewest yards/attempt allowed through the air this year.

If Purdy plays, Jennings is likely to see enough targets to be at least flex-worthy this weekend. If we see more Brandon Allen, however, I’d give Jennings a miss for now.

Those are my NFL week 13 starts and sits, feel free to comment if you have any thoughts. I’ll be back with the betting preview tomorrow, provided we don’t get another storm.

In-depth stats from Pro Football Focus.